Executive Order Prediction Markets vs. the Federal Register

By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Oct 23, 2026, 8:34 AM ET

Key findings

• 83 of 115 contracts (72%) called right early in the week; Brier score 0.192 (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip).
• “Any executive orders this week?” The market’s lean was right on 37 of 52 weeks; 17 of 54 weeks had none.
• Biggest surprise: the week of Feb 22, 2026, “0 to 0” traded at 11.5¢ and settled Yes; the Federal Register lists 0 orders signed that week.
• Pace. The Federal Register lists 67 executive orders signed so far in 2026 (about 1.6 a week), against 238 in all of 2025.
• Settlements check out. 116 of 116 settlements agree with the Federal Register count by signing date.

How the executive-order market works

Each week Kalshi lists contracts on how many executive orders the President signs between Sunday and Saturday (Eastern time), such as “more than 2” or “0 to 0”. A contract pays $1 if the week’s count meets its condition. Several contracts can cover the same week, so one week can appear as more than one row in the scores.

What counts. Under Kalshi’s contract terms, only numbered documents formally titled “Executive Order”, signed by the President and published in the Federal Register count, including orders later revoked or amended and classified orders acknowledged by number. Presidential memoranda, proclamations, determinations, national security memoranda and other “executive actions” do not count, even when news coverage calls them executive orders.

Settlement and timing. The signing date recorded in the Federal Register decides which week an order belongs to, not the publication date. Orders appear in the Federal Register some days after signing (a median of 5 days for orders signed since January 2025), so a week’s contracts can stay open for up to two weeks after it ends; they can settle sooner once a later-dated order is published.

What the counts look like. In the 54 weeks scored, the count ranged from 0 to 5; 17 weeks had none and 12 had three or more. Orders often come in batches: on 75 of the 142 days since January 2025 with any signed order, two or more were signed, which makes weekly counts lumpy.

Reading the table: a worked example. For the week of Oct 11, 2026 to Oct 17, 2026, the Federal Register lists 1 executive order signed. “More than 0” traded at 74¢ early in the week and settled Yes; “More than 1” traded at 45¢ early in the week and settled No; “More than 2” traded at 20¢ early in the week and settled No; “More than 3” traded at 8.5¢ early in the week and settled No; “More than 4” traded at 2.5¢ early in the week and settled No. Counting the side priced above 50¢ as the market’s call, 5 of those 5 contracts were called right. A contract whose settlement differs from our own Federal Register count is tagged “differs”.

Every settled week

Download the data

Weekly executive-order contracts (CSV)

One row per settled market period. Per-contract price histories are not included. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.

Methodology

• Markets. Kalshi’s weekly KXEOWEEK series, from Kalshi’s public API. Each week runs Sunday to Saturday as stated in the contract rules. Each contract is priced about 24 hours after it opened (Monday morning ET), using hourly-candle bid/ask midpoints or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢.
• Official count. Executive orders from the Federal Register API, counted by signing date. Orders are usually published a few days after signing, so the latest week can be incomplete until publication catches up.
• Scope. This page measures forecasting accuracy only. It takes no position on any executive order.
• Limits. About a year of weekly markets, often only one or two contracts per week; the Federal Register publishes orders several days after signing. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Oct 23, 2026, 8:34 AM ET.

Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket, with presidential documents from the Federal Register. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.

Related: shutdown odds · approval markets · regulation tracker · All research