Kalshi puts the chance of a shutdown on Dec 12 at 33%.
Current federal funding runs through December 11, 2026 under the Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2027 (Public Law 119-103). Since 2025 there have been three funding lapses; a day before each shutdown market settled, the side priced above 50¢ was right 5 of 5 times.
Kalshi market data and Congress.gov, pulled Oct 16, 2026, 12:09 PM ET. Updated daily.
By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Oct 16, 2026, 12:09 PM ET
Key findings
- Next deadline: December 11, 2026. Public Law 119-103 (signed Sep 2, 2026) funds the government until then. Kalshi’s “shut down on Dec 12” market: 33%, 17,830 contracts traded.
- Three lapses since 2025. Oct–Nov 2025 (full): 43 days; Jan–Feb 2026 (partial): 4 days; Feb–Apr 2026 (Homeland Security): 76 days, reconstructed from the laws that ended prior funding and restored it.
- Markets a day before settling. 5 of 5 shutdown yes/no markets had the winning side above 50¢ a day out; a week out, 4 of 5.
- Length, Oct–Nov 2025 (full). Two days in, the market’s median expectation was about 44 days; it lasted 43 days.
- Length, Jan–Feb 2026 (partial). Two days in, the market’s median expectation was about 4 days; it lasted 4 days.
- Length, Feb–Apr 2026 (Homeland Security). Two days in, the market’s median expectation was about 80 days; it lasted 76 days.
Funding lapses since 2025
A lapse is counted from the day after funding expired through the day the law restoring it was signed, the usual convention (it gives 43 days for the 2025 shutdown). Dates come from Congress.gov; the expiry date of each prior funding law is checked in its enrolled text.
| Lapse | Began | Ended (law signed) | Days | Prior funding expired | Restored by | Kalshi length settlement | Market median, 2 days in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct–Nov 2025 (full) | Oct 1, 2025 | Nov 12, 2025 | 43 | after September 30, 2025 (P.L. 119-4) | P.L. 119-37 | >42, ≤43 days ✓ | 44 days |
| Jan–Feb 2026 (partial) | Jan 31, 2026 | Feb 3, 2026 | 4 | after January 30, 2026 (P.L. 119-37) | P.L. 119-75 | >3, ≤4 days ✓ | 4 days |
| Feb–Apr 2026 (Homeland Security) | Feb 14, 2026 | Apr 30, 2026 | 76 | after February 13, 2026 (P.L. 119-75) | P.L. 119-86 | ≥75, <80 days ✓ | 80 days |
Every settled shutdown market
| Market | Settled | Outcome | Price 7 days before | Price 1 day before | Contracts traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US government be shut down on Oct 1, 2026? | Oct 1, 2026 | No | 0.5¢ | 0.5¢ | 939,625 |
| Will the US government be shut down on Feb 14, 2026? | Feb 14, 2026 | Yes | 65¢ | 88.5¢ | 29,962,958 |
| Government shutdown in 2026? (In 2026) | Jan 31, 2026 | Yes | 35.5¢ | 87.5¢ | 338,338 |
| Government shutdown in 2025? (Before 2026) | Oct 1, 2025 | Yes | 74.5¢ | 84¢ | 2,014,502 |
| Government shutdown in 2024? (In 2024) | Dec 31, 2024 | No | 0.5¢ | 0.5¢ | 4,184,398 |
Markets with fewer than 1,000 contracts traded are left out. Prices are hourly-candle midpoints (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢).
Open shutdown markets
| Market | Implied chance | Contracts traded |
|---|---|---|
| Will the US government be shut down on Dec 12, 2026? | 33% | 17,830 |
As of Oct 16, 2026, 12:09 PM ET. Kalshi resolves these on the Office of Management and Budget and Office of Personnel Management status. A market price is a crowd estimate, not a forecast by PredictionScout.
Download the data
Shutdown yes/no markets (CSV)Funding lapses (Congress.gov) (CSV)
One row per settled market period. Per-contract price histories are not included. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.
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Methodology
- Markets. Kalshi’s
KXGOVTSHUTDOWN(“shut down on date X”),KXSHUTDOWNBY/SHUTDOWNBY(“shutdown before date X”) and shutdown-length series, from Kalshi’s public API. Yes/no markets are priced 7 days and 1 day before they settled; length ladders two days into each lapse. - Official record. Appropriations laws from the Congress.gov API (public law numbers and signing dates) and their enrolled texts on Congress.gov (funding expiry dates). Kalshi settles on OMB and OPM operating status.
- Lapse length. Days from the first unfunded day through the day the restoring law was signed, inclusive. Partial lapses affected only agencies whose full-year bills had not passed.
- Limits. Few deadlines, so the track record is short; some lapses were partial; Kalshi’s day-count rules can differ by a day from a calendar count. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Oct 16, 2026, 12:09 PM ET.
Cite this research
Suggested citation: PredictionScout. (2026, October 16). Government Shutdown Odds: What Prediction Markets Said Before Every Deadline. https://predictionscout.com/research/government-shutdown-prediction-markets/
For a chart or news story: “Source: PredictionScout analysis of public exchange data (https://predictionscout.com/research/government-shutdown-prediction-markets/)”
The data and charts on this page are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page. Market data: Kalshi. Laws: Congress.gov.
Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket, with appropriations laws from Congress.gov. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.
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