Kalshi lists 139 markets on 2026 state ballot measures in 39 states, but only 82 trade enough to give a usable price.
We pull every market daily and show the implied chance of passing where the bid-ask spread is 10¢ or less and at least 100 contracts have traded. After Nov 3 each market is scored against the official result.
Kalshi market data, pulled Oct 16, 2026, 12:02 PM ET. Updated daily.
By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Oct 16, 2026, 12:02 PM ET
139markets
39states
82with a usable price
416,666contracts traded
Key findings
- 139 markets, 39 states. 416,666 contracts have traded across all of them.
- Most are too thin to read. 55 of 137 open markets have a spread wider than 10¢ or fewer than 100 contracts traded; we show their bid and ask but no implied chance.
- Of the 82 markets with a usable price, 63 are priced to pass (50% or higher) and 19 to fail.
- Most traded: Iowa Amendment 1: 18,681 contracts, 35% to pass; Idaho Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act (Proposition 1): 17,778 contracts, 10% to pass; Arkansas Right to Keep and Bear Arms Amendment (SJR 11): 14,334 contracts, 94% to pass; Arkansas Water Infrastructure Bond Question (Act 578): 14,068 contracts, 88% to pass; Alabama Amendment 3 (School Pledge and student-led prayer): 12,852 contracts, 96% to pass.
- Settled before Election Day. Colorado Initiative #175 settled NO on Sep 22, 2026. Kalshi did not publish a reason in the market data; we have not confirmed the measure’s ballot status with the state.
Every 2026 ballot-measure market
Implied chance of passing from the midpoint of the best bid and ask. “Too thin” means the spread is wider than 10¢ or fewer than 100 contracts have traded, so the price says little. Descriptions are Kalshi’s short labels, not ballot language.
| State | Measure | Kalshi description | Chance of passing | Contracts traded | Official results source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Amendment 1 | Lt. gov. vacancy; leg. officer pay | 74% | 4,786 | Alabama Secretary of State |
| Alabama | Amendment 2 | County school system consolidation | 66% | 8,079 | Alabama Secretary of State |
| Alabama | Amendment 3 | School Pledge and student-led prayer | 96% | 12,852 | Alabama Secretary of State |
| Alabama | Amendment 4 | Weekly national anthem in schools | too thin (bid 72¢ / ask 82¢) | 0 | Alabama Secretary of State |
| Alaska | Ballot Measure 2 | End ranked choice; restore primaries | 41% | 3,478 | Alaska Division of Elections |
| Alaska | Ballot Measure 3 | U.S.-citizens-only voting | 82% | 8,667 | Alaska Division of Elections |
| Arizona | Proposition 141 | Ban mileage tax and vehicle tracking | too thin (bid 82¢ / ask 99¢) | 6,097 | Arizona Secretary of State |
| Arizona | Proposition 142 | Expand race-preference restrictions | too thin (bid 60¢ / ask 99¢) | 277 | Arizona Secretary of State |
| Arizona | Proposition 144 | Voter ID and citizenship checks | too thin (bid 32¢ / ask 62¢) | 4,842 | Arizona Secretary of State |
| Arizona | Proposition 316 | Cap local grocery taxes at 2% | too thin (bid 80¢ / ask 99¢) | 1 | Arizona Secretary of State |
| Arizona | Proposition 317 | Declare drug cartels terrorist groups | too thin (bid 8¢ / ask 80¢) | 10,476 | Arizona Secretary of State |
| Arizona | Proposition 318 | Sex rules for sports/private spaces | too thin (bid 51¢ / ask 75¢) | 2,037 | Arizona Secretary of State |
| Arizona | Proposition 319 | Traffic-camera bans and voter review | too thin (bid 77¢ / ask 98¢) | 7,738 | Arizona Secretary of State |
| Arizona | Proposition 320 | Some districts: 60% classroom spend | too thin (bid 26¢ / ask 58¢) | 2,791 | Arizona Secretary of State |
| Arkansas | Citizens Only Voting Amendment | HJR 1018 | 96% | 11,242 | Arkansas Secretary of State |
| Arkansas | Economic Development Districts Amendment | SJR 15 | 76% | 5,764 | Arkansas Secretary of State |
| Arkansas | Right to Keep and Bear Arms Amendment | SJR 11 | 94% | 14,334 | Arkansas Secretary of State |
| Arkansas | Water Infrastructure Bond Question | Act 578 | 88% | 14,068 | Arkansas Secretary of State |
| California | Proposition 1 | Proposition 1 Veterans & Affordable Housing Bond | too thin (bid 53¢ / ask 78¢) | 520 | California Secretary of State |
| California | Proposition 2 | Save for California's Future Act | too thin (bid 77¢ / ask 100¢) | 510 | California Secretary of State |
| California | Proposition 3 | Tax extension for schools/healthcare | too thin (bid 83¢ / ask 97¢) | 2,304 | California Secretary of State |
| California | Proposition 37 | Middle-income home buyer loans | too thin (bid 73¢ / ask 100¢) | 2,574 | California Secretary of State |
| California | Proposition 38 | Bonds for immunology research | too thin (bid 39¢ / ask 82¢) | 5,153 | California Secretary of State |
| California | Proposition 39 | Voter ID and citizenship verification | 22% | 4,035 | California Secretary of State |
| California | Proposition 4 | Fair Elections public campaign financing | too thin (bid 0¢ / ask 45¢) | 543 | California Secretary of State |
| California | Proposition 41 | Audits for new special taxes | too thin (bid 27¢ / ask 89¢) | 430 | California Secretary of State |
| California | Proposition 42 | Prohibits new personal property taxes | too thin (bid 64¢ / ask 86¢) | 2,482 | California Secretary of State |
| California | Proposition 43 | Limits on local taxes | too thin (bid 12¢ / ask 42¢) | 478 | California Secretary of State |
| California | Proposition 44 | 90% clinic revenue on programs | too thin (bid 0¢ / ask 23¢) | 3,461 | California Secretary of State |
| California | Proposition 45 | Modifies environmental review for projects | too thin (bid 27¢ / ask 77¢) | 3,641 | California Secretary of State |
| California | Proposition 5 | Recall of state officers | too thin (bid 0¢ / ask 49¢) | 1,714 | California Secretary of State |
| Colorado | Amendment 81 | DHS notice after certain charges | 44% | 1,121 | Colorado Secretary of State |
| Colorado | Amendment 82 | Right to purchase natural gas | 49% | 4,770 | Colorado Secretary of State |
| Colorado | Amendment 83 | Constitutional right to hunt and fish | too thin (bid 58¢ / ask 67¢) | 37 | Colorado Secretary of State |
| Colorado | Amendment 84 | Mail ballot voter identification | too thin (bid 63¢ / ask 72¢) | 36 | Colorado Secretary of State |
| Colorado | Amendment 85 | Plain-language ballot questions | too thin (bid 67¢ / ask 77¢) | 14 | Colorado Secretary of State |
| Colorado | Amendment 86 | Congressional redistricting | too thin (bid 55¢ / ask 64¢) | 11 | Colorado Secretary of State |
| Colorado | Amendment 87 | Graduated income tax | 22% | 8,211 | Colorado Secretary of State |
| Colorado | Initiative #175 | Route vehicle revenue to roads | Settled NO | 6,916 | Colorado Secretary of State |
| Colorado | Proposition 132 | Higher fentanyl penalties | too thin (bid 69¢ / ask 79¢) | 54 | Colorado Secretary of State |
| Colorado | Proposition 133 | Life term for child sex trafficking | 71% | 6,748 | Colorado Secretary of State |
| Colorado | Proposition 134 | School sports by biological sex | 61% | 295 | Colorado Secretary of State |
| Colorado | Proposition 135 | Ban transition surgeries for minors | 58% | 495 | Colorado Secretary of State |
| Colorado | Proposition 136 | Income tax rate limit | 82% | 840 | Colorado Secretary of State |
| Colorado | Proposition 137 | Direct sporting-goods sales tax revenue for conservation | too thin (bid 60¢ / ask 70¢) | 7 | Colorado Secretary of State |
| Colorado | Proposition NN | Keep excess revenue for K-12 schools | 54% | 2,444 | Colorado Secretary of State |
| Florida | Amendment 1 | Amendment 1 Raise budget-reserve cap to 25% | 70% | 325 | Florida Division of Elections |
| Florida | Amendment 2 | Agriculture property-tax exemption | 68% | 9,753 | Florida Division of Elections |
| Georgia | 9-1-1 Fund Amendment | Amendment 2 | 82% | 8,955 | Georgia Secretary of State |
| Georgia | Acre Limit Amendment | Amendment 1 | too thin (bid 83¢ / ask 93¢) | 36 | Georgia Secretary of State |
| Georgia | Nonpartisan Elections for Probate Judges Amendment | Amendment 3 | 70% | 3,414 | Georgia Secretary of State |
| Hawaii | Authorize RISE Bonds Amendment | Amendment 2 | too thin (bid 71¢ / ask 81¢) | 200 | Hawaii Office of Elections |
| Hawaii | Increase Time for Senate to Act on Judicial Appointments Amendment | Amendment 1 | too thin (bid 71¢ / ask 81¢) | 0 | Hawaii Office of Elections |
| Idaho | Drug Legalization Authority Amendment | HJR 4 | too thin (bid 37¢ / ask 71¢) | 11,651 | Idaho Secretary of State |
| Idaho | English as Official State Language Amendment | HJR 6 | 90% | 9,471 | Idaho Secretary of State |
| Idaho | Official State Gun Question | Advisory vote on official state gun | too thin | 0 | Idaho Secretary of State |
| Idaho | Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act | Proposition 1 | 10% | 17,778 | Idaho Secretary of State |
| Indiana | Public Question 1 | Broaden bail denial for public risk | 85% | 6,461 | Indiana Election Division |
| Indiana | Public Question 2 | City/town court judge residency rules | 80% | 6,127 | Indiana Election Division |
| Iowa | Amendment 1 | Amendment 1 | 35% | 18,681 | Iowa Secretary of State |
| Kansas | HCR 5004 | HCR 5004 | 90% | 6,760 | Kansas Secretary of State |
| Kentucky | Amendment 1 | Amendment 1 | 94% | 6,014 | Kentucky State Board of Elections |
| Louisiana | Disabled Veteran Spouse Tax Exemption | Act 39 | 81% | 2,356 | Louisiana Secretary of State |
| Louisiana | Foreign Adversary Expropriation | Act 277 | 80% | 1,024 | Louisiana Secretary of State |
| Louisiana | Gubernatorial Term Limits | Act 414 | too thin (bid 65¢ / ask 75¢) | 50 | Louisiana Secretary of State |
| Louisiana | Post-Conviction Bail | Act 271 | too thin (bid 66¢ / ask 75¢) | 63 | Louisiana Secretary of State |
| Louisiana | Private Water Line Funding | Act 607 | 61% | 5,020 | Louisiana Secretary of State |
| Louisiana | Property Tax Millage | Act 273 | 55% | 4,941 | Louisiana Secretary of State |
| Louisiana | Rehabilitated Blighted Property Tax Exemption Amendment | Act 272 | 40% | 6,519 | Louisiana Secretary of State |
| Louisiana | Retirement Debt Funding | Act 606 | 53% | 2,858 | Louisiana Secretary of State |
| Louisiana | Senior Property Tax Exemption Amendment | Act 274 | 81% | 1,258 | Louisiana Secretary of State |
| Louisiana | Senior Tax Freeze Income-Limit | Act 220 (2025) | too thin (bid 65¢ / ask 75¢) | 50 | Louisiana Secretary of State |
| Maryland | Question 1 | Fund state-worker bargaining terms | too thin (bid 71¢ / ask 81¢) | 0 | Maryland State Board of Elections |
| Maryland | Question 2 | Temporary judicial-discipline seats | 78% | 4,355 | Maryland State Board of Elections |
| Maryland | Question 3 | State district rules exclude Congress | 66% | 1,069 | Maryland State Board of Elections |
| Massachusetts | Question 1 | Open-records law for Legislature/Gov. | 90% | 1,701 | Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts |
| Massachusetts | Question 2 | Union rights for CPCS employees | too thin (bid 75¢ / ask 85¢) | 4 | Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts |
| Massachusetts | Question 3 | All-candidate top-two primary | 36% | 816 | Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts |
| Massachusetts | Question 4 | Election Day voter registration | 90% | 795 | Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts |
| Massachusetts | Question 5 | Change revenue cap and rebate formula | 40% | 420 | Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts |
| Massachusetts | Question 6 | Dedicate sales-tax revenue to nature | 86% | 216 | Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts |
| Massachusetts | Question 7 | Smaller lots for single-family homes | too thin (bid 75¢ / ask 85¢) | 14 | Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts |
| Massachusetts | Question 8 | End retail marijuana and home growing | 7% | 403 | Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts |
| Massachusetts | Question 9 | Referendum on 2024 gun law | 82% | 262 | Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts |
| Michigan | Proposal 2026-2 | Ban utility and contractor campaign contributions | 88% | 961 | Michigan Board of State Canvassers |
| Minnesota | Constitutional Amendment | Constitutional Amendment | 90% | 2,937 | Minnesota Secretary of State |
| Missouri | Amendment 6 | Limit changes to voter-passed laws | too thin (bid 2¢ / ask 99¢) | 0 | Missouri Secretary of State |
| Missouri | Amendment 7 | Amendment 7 Create fund to replace state taxes | 24% | 4,232 | Missouri Secretary of State |
| Missouri | Amendment 8 | County sheriff election/removal rules | 71% | 148 | Missouri Secretary of State |
| Montana | CI-132 | Nonpartisan judicial elections | too thin (bid 70¢ / ask 80¢) | 42 | Montana Secretary of State |
| Montana | CI-133 | Initiative and referendum powers | too thin (bid 69¢ / ask 79¢) | 12 | Montana Secretary of State |
| Montana | I-194 | Corporate political spending restriction | too thin (bid 45¢ / ask 54¢) | 51 | Montana Secretary of State |
| Nebraska | Fairness for Girls Constitutional Amendment | Sex-based eligibility for school and college sports | 80% | 2,665 | Nebraska Secretary of State |
| Nebraska | LR19CA | LR19CA | too thin (bid 15¢ / ask 25¢) | 0 | Nebraska Secretary of State |
| Nebraska | Online Sports Wagering Authorization Constitutional Amendment | Constitutional authorization for online sports wagering | too thin (bid 59¢ / ask 69¢) | 73 | Nebraska Secretary of State |
| Nebraska | Online Sports Wagering Regulation Initiative | Legalization and regulation of online sports wagering | 66% | 239 | Nebraska Secretary of State |
| Nevada | Question 7 | Question 7 | too thin (bid 86¢ / ask 94¢) | 10 | Nevada Secretary of State |
| New Hampshire | Register of Probate Amendment | CACR 13 Eliminate register of probate office | 40% | 5,817 | New Hampshire Secretary of State |
| New Mexico | Higher Education Bond | Bond Question 3 | too thin (bid 79¢ / ask 89¢) | 0 | New Mexico Secretary of State |
| New Mexico | Legislative Salaries Amendment | Amendment 4 | 42% | 2,265 | New Mexico Secretary of State |
| New Mexico | Library Bond | Bond Question 2 | 92% | 4,071 | New Mexico Secretary of State |
| New Mexico | Pocket Veto Amendment | Amendment 1 | 71% | 371 | New Mexico Secretary of State |
| New Mexico | Regents Selection Amendment | Amendment 3 | 73% | 275 | New Mexico Secretary of State |
| New Mexico | School Election Dates Amendment | Amendment 2 | too thin (bid 65¢ / ask 75¢) | 0 | New Mexico Secretary of State |
| New Mexico | Senior Citizen Facilities Bond | Bond Question 1 | 96% | 3,563 | New Mexico Secretary of State |
| North Carolina | Income Tax Rate Cap Amendment | Amendment 2 | 80% | 203 | North Carolina State Board of Elections |
| North Carolina | Property Tax Levy Limit Amendment | Amendment 3 | 82% | 495 | North Carolina State Board of Elections |
| North Carolina | Voter Identification Amendment | Amendment 1 | too thin (bid 78¢ / ask 88¢) | 0 | North Carolina State Board of Elections |
| North Dakota | Constitutional Measure 1 | 60% vote to amend state constitution | 16% | 4,943 | North Dakota Secretary of State |
| North Dakota | Constitutional Measure 2 | Free school meals guarantee | too thin (bid 52¢ / ask 62¢) | 2 | North Dakota Secretary of State |
| Ohio | Issue 3 | Issue 3 | 93% | 1,115 | Ohio Secretary of State |
| Oklahoma | State Question 845 | Change judicial nominating commission | 48% | 4,883 | Oklahoma State Election Board |
| Oklahoma | State Question 847 | Lower caps; change senior tax freeze | too thin (bid 44¢ / ask 53¢) | 95 | Oklahoma State Election Board |
| Rhode Island | Economic & Infrastructure Bond | Question 1 | 88% | 1,542 | Rhode Island Board of Elections |
| Rhode Island | Environment & Water Bond | Question 2 | 89% | 1,470 | Rhode Island Board of Elections |
| Rhode Island | Higher Education Bond | Question 3 | 86% | 1,645 | Rhode Island Board of Elections |
| Rhode Island | Historical Center & Cultural Grants Bond | Question 4 | 84% | 8,512 | Rhode Island Board of Elections |
| Rhode Island | Housing & Homeownership Bond | Question 5 | 87% | 1,424 | Rhode Island Board of Elections |
| South Dakota | Amendment I | End expansion below 90% fed share | too thin (bid 15¢ / ask 24¢) | 8 | South Dakota Secretary of State |
| South Dakota | Amendment J | U.S.-citizens-only voting | 93% | 2,820 | South Dakota Secretary of State |
| South Dakota | Amendment K | Unclaimed-property trust fund | too thin (bid 75¢ / ask 85¢) | 0 | South Dakota Secretary of State |
| South Dakota | Amendment L | 60% vote to amend state constitution | 16% | 874 | South Dakota Secretary of State |
| Tennessee | Amendment 1 | Allow bail denial for serious crimes | 88% | 211 | Tennessee Secretary of State |
| Tennessee | Amendment 2 | Ban state property tax | 84% | 3,099 | Tennessee Secretary of State |
| Tennessee | Amendment 3 | Constitutional crime-victim rights | 88% | 3,017 | Tennessee Secretary of State |
| Utah | 60% Vote for Tax-Raising Initiatives | S.J.R. 2 | 65% | 3,554 | Utah Lieutenant Governor’s Office |
| Utah | Constitutional Amendment Publication | H.J.R. 10 | too thin (bid 68¢ / ask 78¢) | 0 | Utah Lieutenant Governor’s Office |
| Vermont | Proposal 3 | Right to collective bargaining | 88% | 6,308 | Vermont Secretary of State |
| Vermont | Proposal 4 | Expanded equal-protection rights | 86% | 1,545 | Vermont Secretary of State |
| Virginia | Question 2 | Question 2 Marriage equality protections | too thin (bid 89¢ / ask 98¢) | 0 | Virginia Department of Elections |
| Virginia | Question 3 | Restore voting rights upon release | 96% | 5,898 | Virginia Department of Elections |
| Washington | Initiative No. IL26-001 | Restore 2024 parental-rights law | too thin (bid 43¢ / ask 53¢) | 905 | Washington Secretary of State |
| Washington | Initiative No. IL26-638 | Sex-based rules for girls' sports | 44% | 820 | Washington Secretary of State |
| Washington | Initiative No. IP26-645 | End and ban state/local income taxes | too thin (bid 15¢ / ask 24¢) | 52 | Washington Secretary of State |
| West Virginia | Amendment 1 | Amendment 1 | 95% | 4,504 | West Virginia Secretary of State |
| Wisconsin | Prohibit Government Closure of Places of Worship During Emergencies Amendment | Question 1 | 82% | 2,982 | Wisconsin Elections Commission |
| Wisconsin | Prohibit Government Discrimination or Preferential Treatment Amendment | Question 2 | 69% | 383 | Wisconsin Elections Commission |
| Wisconsin | Prohibit Partial Veto to Increase Tax or Fee Amendment | Question 3 | 61% | 471 | Wisconsin Elections Commission |
| Wyoming | Initiative 1 | Initiative 1 | 29% | 7,961 | Wyoming Secretary of State |
The official results source for each state is the one Kalshi names in its settlement rules. A market price is a crowd estimate, not a prediction by PredictionScout, and nothing on this page is a recommendation on how to vote.
Download the data
All ballot-measure markets (CSV)
One row per settled market period. Per-contract price histories are not included. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.
Embed this chart
Methodology
- Markets. Kalshi’s
KXSTATEBALLOTMEASUREandKXCABALLOTMEASURESseries, from Kalshi’s public API, pulled daily. One row per measure. - Usable price. Midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10¢ or less and at least 100 contracts have traded; otherwise the market is marked too thin.
- Scoring (after Nov 3). Each measure settled on the election is priced at noon ET on Nov 2 and counted right if the side priced above 50¢ won. Measures that settle before Election Day are listed separately. Results are checked against each state’s certified count from the official source listed in the table.
- Limits. The list of measures is Kalshi’s, and we have not independently confirmed that every measure is certified for the ballot; most markets trade very little; certified results can take weeks. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Oct 16, 2026, 12:02 PM ET.
Cite this research
Suggested citation: PredictionScout. (2026, October 16). 2026 State Ballot Measures: Prediction Market Odds vs. Official Results. https://predictionscout.com/research/state-ballot-measure-prediction-markets-2026/
For a chart or news story: “Source: PredictionScout analysis of public exchange data (https://predictionscout.com/research/state-ballot-measure-prediction-markets-2026/)”
The data and charts on this page are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page. Market data: Kalshi. Results: state election offices.
Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket, with results from state election offices. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.
Related: 2026 election-night scorecard · election-night results sources · midterms tracker · All research