Kalshi’s pre-race favorite won 25 of 41 Formula 1 Grands Prix since 2025.
Four hours before lights out we took the price of every driver in Kalshi’s race-winner market and compared the favorite with the official race classification. In 2026 the favorite has won 12 of 17 races; the average favorite was priced at 53.8¢.
Kalshi market data and official F1 race classifications, pulled Oct 16, 2026, 11:59 AM ET. Updated daily.
By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Oct 16, 2026, 11:59 AM ET
Key findings
- Favorites won 61% of races. 25 of 41 since the 2025 season opener; 12 of 17 in 2026.
- Strong favorites. When the favorite was priced at 50¢ or more four hours before the start, it won 18 of 24 races.
- Biggest upset: Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Italian Grand Prix 2026. Priced at 4¢ four hours before the start; the favorite was George Russell at 51.5¢.
- Podium markets. Of 800 “finishes on the podium” contracts, the side priced above 50¢ was right 737 times (92%).
- Results check. 41 of 41 race-winner settlements and 800 of 800 podium settlements match the official classification.
- Next race: United States Grand Prix, Oct 25, 2026. Kalshi has not opened its winner market yet; this page adds the odds once it does and scores the race after it settles.
Every scored Grand Prix
| Race | Grand Prix | Winner (official) | Winner’s price, 4h before | Winner’s rank | Kalshi favorite, 4h before | Favorite won? | Contracts traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 R17 | Singapore Grand Prix | Max Verstappen | 67¢ | #1 | Max Verstappen (67¢) | ✓ | 1,436,155 |
| 2026 R16 | Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia | Max Verstappen | 59.5¢ | #1 | Max Verstappen (59.5¢) | ✓ | 1,838,363 |
| 2026 R15 | Azerbaijan Grand Prix | George Russell | 65.5¢ | #1 | George Russell (65.5¢) | ✓ | 1,877,378 |
| 2026 R14 | Spanish Grand Prix | Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 41.5¢ | #1 | Andrea Kimi Antonelli (41.5¢) | ✓ | 2,223,029 |
| 2026 R13 | Italian Grand Prix | Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 4¢ | #7 | George Russell (51.5¢) | ✗ | 3,090,589 |
| 2026 R12 | Dutch Grand Prix | Lando Norris | 37.5¢ | #1 | Lando Norris (37.5¢) | ✓ | 1,703,263 |
| 2026 R11 | Hungarian Grand Prix | Lando Norris | 36¢ | #1 | Lando Norris (36¢) | ✓ | 3,504,297 |
| 2026 R10 | Belgian Grand Prix | Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 65.5¢ | #1 | Andrea Kimi Antonelli (65.5¢) | ✓ | 2,303,264 |
| 2026 R9 | British Grand Prix | Charles Leclerc | 7¢ | #4 | Andrea Kimi Antonelli (66¢) | ✗ | 2,486,142 |
| 2026 R8 | Austrian Grand Prix | George Russell | 39.5¢ | #1 | George Russell (39.5¢) | ✓ | 2,629,648 |
| 2026 R7 | Barcelona Grand Prix | Lewis Hamilton | 15.5¢ | #3 | George Russell (53.5¢) | ✗ | 2,593,748 |
| 2026 R6 | Monaco Grand Prix | Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 60.5¢ | #1 | Andrea Kimi Antonelli (60.5¢) | ✓ | 3,646,450 |
| 2026 R5 | Canadian Grand Prix | Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 31.5¢ | #2 | George Russell (46.5¢) | ✗ | 2,337,888 |
| 2026 R4 | Miami Grand Prix | Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 37.5¢ | #1 | Andrea Kimi Antonelli (37.5¢) | ✓ | 4,628,698 |
| 2026 R3 | Japanese Grand Prix | Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 56.5¢ | #1 | Andrea Kimi Antonelli (56.5¢) | ✓ | 2,397,010 |
| 2026 R2 | Chinese Grand Prix | Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 26.5¢ | #2 | George Russell (59.5¢) | ✗ | 2,014,219 |
| 2026 R1 | Australian Grand Prix | George Russell | 70.5¢ | #1 | George Russell (70.5¢) | ✓ | 2,922,568 |
| 2025 R24 | Abu Dhabi Grand Prix | Max Verstappen | 73.5¢ | #1 | Max Verstappen (73.5¢) | ✓ | 1,213,675 |
| 2025 R23 | Qatar Grand Prix | Max Verstappen | 14.5¢ | #3 | Oscar Piastri (61¢) | ✗ | 1,638,271 |
| 2025 R22 | Las Vegas Grand Prix | Max Verstappen | 40.5¢ | #2 | Lando Norris (45.5¢) | ✗ | 2,975,606 |
| 2025 R21 | São Paulo Grand Prix | Lando Norris | 71.5¢ | #1 | Lando Norris (71.5¢) | ✓ | 1,026,364 |
| 2025 R20 | Mexico City Grand Prix | Lando Norris | 63.5¢ | #1 | Lando Norris (63.5¢) | ✓ | 1,236,929 |
| 2025 R19 | United States Grand Prix | Max Verstappen | 64.5¢ | #1 | Max Verstappen (64.5¢) | ✓ | 1,115,338 |
| 2025 R18 | Singapore Grand Prix | George Russell | 36.5¢ | #2 | Max Verstappen (44.5¢) | ✗ | 1,047,353 |
| 2025 R17 | Azerbaijan Grand Prix | Max Verstappen | 67¢ | #1 | Max Verstappen (67¢) | ✓ | 1,035,122 |
| 2025 R16 | Italian Grand Prix | Max Verstappen | 30¢ | #2 | Lando Norris (38¢) | ✗ | 1,352,020 |
| 2025 R15 | Dutch Grand Prix | Oscar Piastri | 61¢ | #1 | Oscar Piastri (61¢) | ✓ | 1,294,058 |
| 2025 R14 | Hungarian Grand Prix | Lando Norris | 28¢ | #2 | Oscar Piastri (49.5¢) | ✗ | 5,973,343 |
| 2025 R13 | Belgian Grand Prix | Oscar Piastri | 35.5¢ | #2 | Lando Norris (45¢) | ✗ | 4,262,838 |
| 2025 R12 | British Grand Prix | Lando Norris | 18.5¢ | #3 | Max Verstappen (38¢) | ✗ | 259,852 |
| 2025 R11 | Austrian Grand Prix | Lando Norris | 66.5¢ | #1 | Lando Norris (66.5¢) | ✓ | 110,155 |
| 2025 R10 | Canadian Grand Prix | George Russell | 19¢ | #3 | Max Verstappen (37.5¢) | ✗ | 115,098 |
| 2025 R9 | Spanish Grand Prix | Oscar Piastri | 59.5¢ | #1 | Oscar Piastri (59.5¢) | ✓ | 130,722 |
| 2025 R8 | Monaco Grand Prix | Lando Norris | 55¢ | #1 | Lando Norris (55¢) | ✓ | 186,593 |
| 2025 R7 | Emilia Romagna Grand Prix | Max Verstappen | 20.5¢ | #2 | Oscar Piastri (63.5¢) | ✗ | 151,424 |
| 2025 R6 | Miami Grand Prix | Oscar Piastri | 18.5¢ | #3 | Lando Norris (36.5¢) | ✗ | 260,513 |
| 2025 R5 | Saudi Arabian Grand Prix | Oscar Piastri | 46.5¢ | #1 | Oscar Piastri (46.5¢) | ✓ | 114,575 |
| 2025 R4 | Bahrain Grand Prix | Oscar Piastri | 69¢ | #1 | Oscar Piastri (69¢) | ✓ | 75,478 |
| 2025 R3 | Japanese Grand Prix | Max Verstappen | 30¢ | #2 | Lando Norris (41¢) | ✗ | 44,469 |
| 2025 R2 | Chinese Grand Prix | Oscar Piastri | 53.5¢ | #1 | Oscar Piastri (53.5¢) | ✓ | 53,459 |
| 2025 R1 | Australian Grand Prix | Lando Norris | 40.5¢ | #1 | Lando Norris (40.5¢) | ✓ | 28,144 |
Prices are hourly-candle midpoints (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢) four hours before the scheduled start, looking back up to 48 hours. Sprint races are not included.
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One row per settled market period. Per-contract price histories are not included. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.
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Methodology
- Markets. Kalshi’s
KXF1RACErace-winner markets andKXF1RACEPODIUMpodium markets for every Grand Prix since 2025, from Kalshi’s public API. Kalshi settles on the FIA’s official result. - Official results. Race classifications and start times from the Jolpica F1 API, the successor to the Ergast database, which records the FIA’s official classification. Each Kalshi event is matched to the race whose start is closest to the market’s close.
- Prices. Every driver priced four hours before the scheduled start. The favorite is the highest-priced driver. Podium contracts each count once: right if the side priced above 50¢ won.
- Limits. About 40 races; prices four hours before the start include qualifying but not first-lap incidents; post-race penalties can change a classification after Kalshi settles. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Oct 16, 2026, 11:59 AM ET.
Cite this research
Suggested citation: PredictionScout. (2026, October 16). How Accurate Are F1 Prediction Markets? Kalshi Race Favorites vs. Results. https://predictionscout.com/research/f1-prediction-market-accuracy/
For a chart or news story: “Source: PredictionScout analysis of public exchange data (https://predictionscout.com/research/f1-prediction-market-accuracy/)”
The data and charts on this page are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page. Market data: Kalshi. Results: FIA classifications via the Jolpica F1 API.
Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket, with race results from the FIA via the Jolpica F1 API. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.
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