Kalshi’s day-before favorite won 2 of 3 headline races; in Brazil, Flávio Bolsonaro finished first at 24.5¢.
We priced every settled Kalshi market on the three elections at noon Eastern the day before voting and checked each result against the official electoral authority. Across 15 winner and placing markets the favorite was right 6 times, and across 203 individual contracts the side priced above 50¢ won 177 times (87%).
Kalshi market data and official election results, pulled Oct 16, 2026, 11:47 AM ET. Updated daily until the Brazil runoff settles.
By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Oct 16, 2026, 11:47 AM ET
Key findings
- Headline races. Sweden: Swedish Social Democratic Party (favorite at 97.1¢); Brazil: Flávio Bolsonaro won at 24.5¢; favorite Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 76.5¢; Quebec (Canada): PQ (favorite at 94.4¢).
- Placing markets were harder. Favorites won 6 of 15 winner, placing and margin markets. Misses: Sweden 2nd-most seats (Moderate Party at 23¢, favorite Sweden Democrats at 78¢); Sweden 3rd-most seats (Sweden Democrats at 20.5¢, favorite Moderate Party at 77.5¢); Sweden 4th-most seats (Left Party at 20¢, favorite Centre Party at 46¢); Brazil first-round winner (Flávio Bolsonaro at 24.5¢, favorite Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 76.5¢); Brazil 2nd place (Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 25.5¢, favorite Flávio Bolsonaro at 75.5¢); Brazil 3rd place (Augusto Cury at 23.5¢, favorite Renan Santos at 60.5¢); Brazil 4th place (Renan Santos at 28.5¢, favorite Augusto Cury at 40¢); Brazil 5th place (Ronaldo Caiado at 39¢, favorite Augusto Cury at 41.5¢); Brazil winner and margin (Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-5% at 20.5¢, favorite Lula da Silva, 0-5% at 64.5¢).
- Calibration. contracts whose favored side was priced 50–69¢ won 16 of 26; contracts whose favored side was priced 70–89¢ won 32 of 48; contracts whose favored side was priced 90–99¢ won 129 of 129.
- Official results. 221 of 221 Kalshi settlements we could check match the official count. Brazil’s first round (TSE): Flavio Nantes Bolsonaro 47.03%, Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva 45.16%, so neither reached 50% and the top two advance to the Oct 25 runoff.
- Brazil runoff, Oct 25. Kalshi’s market as of Oct 16, 2026, 11:47 AM ET: Flávio Bolsonaro 77%; Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 24%. This page will score the runoff against the TSE count once Kalshi settles it.
Every scored market
| Election | Market | Winner (Kalshi settlement) | Price day before | Kalshi favorite day before | Favorite won? | Official check | Contracts traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden | Most votes | Swedish Social Democratic Party | 97.1¢ | Swedish Social Democratic Party (97.1¢) | ✓ | 5/5 match | 37,920 |
| Sweden | 2nd-most seats | Moderate Party | 23¢ | Sweden Democrats (78¢) | ✗ | 8/8 match | 45,660 |
| Sweden | 3rd-most seats | Sweden Democrats | 20.5¢ | Moderate Party (77.5¢) | ✗ | 8/8 match | 22,253 |
| Sweden | 4th-most seats | Left Party | 20¢ | Centre Party (46¢) | ✗ | 8/8 match | 27,985 |
| Sweden | Party vote shares | At least 6%, At least 5%, At least 4%, At least 3% | 84.5¢, 94.5¢, 97.5¢, 98¢ | ladder / yes-no | 8/8 match | 51,368 | |
| Sweden | Party vote shares | At least 7%, At least 6%, At least 5%, At least 4%, At least 3% | 76¢, 88¢, 94.5¢, 96¢, 98.5¢ | ladder / yes-no | 9/9 match | 51,092 | |
| Sweden | Party vote shares | At least 19%, At least 18%, At least 17%, At least 16%, At least 15%, At least 13% | 19.5¢, 40¢, 58.5¢, 80.5¢, 96¢, 97.5¢ | ladder / yes-no | 7/7 match | 29,084 | |
| Sweden | Party vote shares | At least 17%, At least 15% | 94.5¢, 97.5¢ | ladder / yes-no | 10/10 match | 34,925 | |
| Sweden | Party vote shares | At least 27% | 82¢ | ladder / yes-no | 7/7 match | 24,532 | |
| Brazil | First-round winner | Flávio Bolsonaro | 24.5¢ | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (76.5¢) | ✗ | 8/8 match | 1,319,035 |
| Brazil | 2nd place | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 25.5¢ | Flávio Bolsonaro (75.5¢) | ✗ | 14/14 match | 196,266 |
| Brazil | 3rd place | Augusto Cury | 23.5¢ | Renan Santos (60.5¢) | ✗ | 14/14 match | 154,785 |
| Brazil | 4th place | Renan Santos | 28.5¢ | Augusto Cury (40¢) | ✗ | 13/13 match | 66,260 |
| Brazil | 5th place | Ronaldo Caiado | 39¢ | Augusto Cury (41.5¢) | ✗ | 13/13 match | 79,891 |
| Brazil | Who advances to the runoff | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Flavio Bolsonaro | 99.5¢, 99.5¢ | ladder / yes-no | 6/6 match | 355,830 | |
| Brazil | Anyone wins outright (50%+) | No | ladder / yes-no | 1/1 match | 200,392 | ||
| Brazil | Candidate vote shares | At least 2%, At least 1% | 91.5¢, 96¢ | ladder / yes-no | 10/10 match | 42,885 | |
| Brazil | Candidate vote shares | At least 47%, At least 42%, At least 39%, At least 37%, At least 35%, At least 33%, At least 31%, At least 29%, At least 26%, At least 21% | 17.5¢, 56.5¢, 89.5¢, 93¢, 95.5¢, 96.5¢, 97¢, 97¢, 97¢, 99.5¢ | ladder / yes-no | 14/14 match | 62,351 | |
| Brazil | Candidate vote shares | At least 2%, At least 1% | 91.5¢, 96¢ | ladder / yes-no | 9/9 match | 33,820 | |
| Brazil | Candidate vote shares | At least 2%, At least 1% | 89.5¢, 95¢ | ladder / yes-no | 8/8 match | 19,343 | |
| Brazil | Candidate vote shares | At least 45%, At least 44%, At least 42%, At least 40%, At least 37% | 41.5¢, 66.5¢, 66.5¢, 81.5¢, 94¢ | ladder / yes-no | 9/9 match | 32,943 | |
| Brazil | Winner and margin | Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-5% | 20.5¢ | Lula da Silva, 0-5% (64.5¢) | ✗ | 6/6 match | 200,530 |
| Quebec (Canada) | Most seats | PQ | 94.4¢ | PQ (94.4¢) | ✓ | 5/5 match | 65,467 |
| Quebec (Canada) | 2nd place (vote share) | Quebec Liberal Party | 75¢ | Quebec Liberal Party (75¢) | ✓ | 5/5 match | 58,132 |
| Quebec (Canada) | 3rd place (vote share) | Conservative Party of Québec | 56.5¢ | Conservative Party of Québec (56.5¢) | ✓ | 5/5 match | 56,263 |
| Quebec (Canada) | 4th place (vote share) | Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ) | 65¢ | Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ) (65¢) | ✓ | 5/5 match | 28,001 |
| Quebec (Canada) | 5th place (vote share) | Québec solidaire | 88¢ | Québec solidaire (88¢) | ✓ | 5/5 match | 17,245 |
| Quebec (Canada) | Parti Quebecois 64+ seats (majority) | No | ladder / yes-no | 1/1 match | 18,003 |
“Official check” counts how many of the event’s contracts settled the same way the official result implies. Prices are hourly-candle midpoints (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢) at noon ET the day before voting.
Sweden: official result
Riksdag election, Sep 13, 2026. Source: Valmyndigheten final count (19 september 2026 14:53:03).
| Party / candidate | Vote share | Seats | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arbetarepartiet-Socialdemokraterna | 28.02% | 99 | 1,895,989 |
| Moderaterna | 19.85% | 70 | 1,343,448 |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 17.48% | 62 | 1,183,248 |
| Vänsterpartiet | 8.40% | 30 | 568,781 |
| Centerpartiet | 7.03% | 25 | 475,780 |
| Kristdemokraterna | 6.17% | 22 | 417,490 |
| Miljöpartiet de gröna | 6.12% | 22 | 414,307 |
| Liberalerna (tidigare Folkpartiet) | 5.34% | 19 | 361,187 |
Brazil: official first-round result
Presidential election, Oct 4, 2026. Source: TSE totalization, 100,00% of polling stations, as of 05/10/2026 12:51:47 (Brasilia time). Shares are of valid votes.
| Party / candidate | Vote share | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| Flavio Nantes Bolsonaro | 47.03% | 56,104,503 |
| Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva | 45.16% | 53,879,538 |
| Augusto Jorge Cury | 2.89% | 3,448,569 |
| Renan Antonio Ferreira Dos Santos | 2.24% | 2,675,887 |
| Ronaldo Ramos Caiado | 2.18% | 2,605,148 |
| Romeu Zema Neto | 0.27% | 326,488 |
| Samara Martins Da Silva Feitosa | 0.10% | 122,911 |
| Hertz Da Conceicao Dias | 0.04% | 43,103 |
Quebec: official result
National Assembly election, Oct 5, 2026. Source: Elections Quebec results file (all 127 ridings final). Seats are ridings won.
| Party / candidate | Vote share | Seats | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parti québécois | 28.02% | 59 | 1,200,394 |
| Parti libéral du Québec/Quebec Liberal Party | 24.23% | 40 | 1,037,999 |
| Parti conservateur du Québec | 20.66% | 19 | 885,379 |
| Équipe Christine Fréchette – Coalition avenir Québec | 13.35% | 0 | 572,037 |
| Québec solidaire | 12.42% | 9 | 532,093 |
| Parti vert du Québec/Green Party of Québec | 0.28% | 0 | 12,107 |
| Climat Québec – Équipe Martine Ouellet | 0.27% | 0 | 11,667 |
| Parti canadien du Québec / Canadian Party of Québec | 0.19% | 0 | 8,232 |
Brazil runoff, Oct 25: live odds
As of Oct 16, 2026, 11:47 AM ET. Market prices are a crowd estimate, not a forecast by PredictionScout.
| Contract | Implied chance |
|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 77% |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 24% |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, 3-6% | 37% |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-3% | 24% |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, 6-9% | 16% |
| Lula da Silva, 0-3% | 12% |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥9% | 6% |
| Lula da Silva, 3-6% | 3% |
Download the data
Contract-level scorecard (CSV)Official results used (CSV)
One row per settled market period. Per-contract price histories are not included. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.
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Methodology
- Markets. Every settled Kalshi market on the three elections (series
KXSWEDENPARLI,KXSWEDEN2ND,KXSWEDEN3RD,KXSWEDEN4TH,KXVOTESWEDEN,KXBRPRES1R,KXBRPRESIDENT2,KXBRPRESIDENT3,KXBRPRESIDENT4,KXBRPRESIDENT5,KXBRPRESADVANCE,KXBRAZILPRES1R,KXVOTEBR1,KXBRPRES1MOV,KXQUEBECASSEMBLY,KXQUEBEC2ND,KXQUEBEC3RD,KXQUEBEC4TH,KXQUEBEC5TH,KXQCPQSEATS,KXBRPRES), from Kalshi’s public API. Each contract is priced at noon Eastern the day before election day. - Official results. Sweden: Valmyndigheten final count. Brazil: Tribunal Superior Eleitoral national totalization (EA20 file, 100% of polling stations). Quebec: Élections Québec results file. Placing markets are checked against the measure in Kalshi’s market title (seats or vote share).
- Favorite. For winner, placing and margin markets, the contract with the highest price. For vote-share ladders and yes/no markets, each contract counts once: right if the side priced above 50¢ won.
- Limits. Three elections only; several placing and vote-share markets traded thinly; Kalshi’s settlement can follow certified results that differ slightly from the counts shown here. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Oct 16, 2026, 11:47 AM ET.
Cite this research
Suggested citation: PredictionScout. (2026, October 16). How Accurate Are Prediction Markets on International Elections? Sweden, Brazil and Quebec 2026. https://predictionscout.com/research/international-election-prediction-markets/
For a chart or news story: “Source: PredictionScout analysis of public exchange data (https://predictionscout.com/research/international-election-prediction-markets/)”
The data and charts on this page are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page. Market data: Kalshi. Results: Valmyndigheten, Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, Elections Quebec.
Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket, with official results from Valmyndigheten, the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral and Élections Québec. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.
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