Kalshi’s SpaceX launch-count markets missed the monthly total by a median 0.6 launches two weeks before the month ended.
We scored 11 monthly launch-count markets against Launch Library 2, The Space Devs’ public launch database, counting launches by Eastern time. For Starship, we compared the launch date the market implied a week before each flight with the actual date, for 10 flights.
Kalshi market data and Launch Library 2, pulled Oct 15, 2026, 11:03 AM ET. Updated daily.
By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Oct 15, 2026, 11:03 AM ET
Key findings
- Launch counts: median miss 0.6. Over 11 months, the total came in above the market median 6 times and below it 5 times. SpaceX has 119 launches so far in 2026, according to Launch Library 2.
- Threshold contracts right 94% of the time. 79 of 84 “above X launches” contracts went the way the market leaned two weeks before the month closed.
- Settlement check. 7 of 12 Kalshi settlements match the Launch Library 2 count for the month in Eastern time; 5 differ and are marked (Aug 2025: Kalshi 13, Launch Library 15; Sep 2025: Kalshi 14, Launch Library 16; Dec 2025: Kalshi 12, Launch Library 13; Jan 2026: Kalshi 12, Launch Library 13; Apr 2026: Kalshi 11, Launch Library 12). Kalshi settles on SpaceX’s own launch list; we have not resolved these differences, so treat them as unexplained.
- Starship timing. A week before launch, the market’s median launch date was within 2.5 days of the actual date for a typical flight; the flight came later than the median in 1 of 10 cases.
- Next flight. Before Oct 16, 2026: 0%; Before Oct 30, 2026: 0%; Before Nov 13, 2026: 29%; Before Nov 27, 2026: 74% (as of Oct 15, 2026, 11:03 AM ET).
Monthly SpaceX launch counts
| Month | Market median, 2 weeks before close | Kalshi settled | Launch Library 2 (ET month) | Miss | Contracts right | Contracts traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | 7.8 | 8 | 8 | +0.2 | 12/12 | 894,473 |
| Aug 2026 | 13.5 | 13 | 13 | -0.5 | 8/9 | 2,253,564 |
| Jul 2026 | 13.4 | 14 | 14 | +0.6 | 8/8 | 2,052,264 |
| Jun 2026 | 13.6 | 14 | 14 | +0.4 | 8/8 | 2,756,426 |
| May 2026 | 10.9 | 12 | 12 | +1.1 | 7/8 | 3,773,076 |
| Apr 2026 | 10.7 | 11 | 12 differs | +0.3 | 7/7 | 2,203,786 |
| Mar 2026 | 15.3 | 15 | 15 | -0.3 | 6/7 | 3,312,066 |
| Feb 2026 | 12.8 | 12 | 12 | -0.8 | 6/7 | 2,708,686 |
| Jan 2026 | 11.0 | 12 | 13 differs | +1.0 | 7/7 | 1,433,590 |
| Dec 2025 | 13.8 | 12 | 13 differs | -1.8 | 6/7 | 240,100 |
| Sep 2025 | 15.4 | 14 | 16 differs | -1.4 | 4/4 | 8,391 |
| Aug 2025 | 12.0 | 13 | 15 differs | not scored | 2/2 | 24,282 |
Starship: when will the next flight launch?
Kalshi lists “next Starship launch before date X” contracts for each flight. A week before the actual launch, the implied median date is the first listed date the market gave at least a 50% chance of launching before.
| Flight (Launch Library 2) | Launched (ET) | Outcome | Market median date, 7 days before | Days later than median | Contracts traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starship | Starlink Group 31-1 (Starship Flight 14) | Sep 28, 2026 | Success | Sep 30, 2026 | -2 | 300,767 |
| Starship | Flight 13 | Jul 24, 2026 | Success | Jul 24, 2026 | +0 | 710,291 |
| Starship | Flight 11 | Oct 13, 2025 | Success | Oct 16, 2025 | -3 | 207,109 |
| Starship | Flight 10 | Aug 26, 2025 | Success | Aug 31, 2025 | -5 | 339,570 |
| Starship | Flight 9 | May 27, 2025 | Failure | May 29, 2025 | -2 | 215,917 |
| Starship | Flight 8 | Mar 6, 2025 | Failure | Mar 4, 2025 | +2 | 616,087 |
| Starship | Flight 7 | Jan 16, 2025 | Failure | Feb 1, 2025 | -16 | 156,003 |
| Starship | Integrated Flight Test 6 | Nov 19, 2024 | Success | Nov 19, 2024 | +0 | 717,223 |
| Starship | Integrated Flight Test 5 | Oct 13, 2024 | Success | Dec 1, 2024 | -49 | 106,737 |
| Starship | Integrated Flight Test 4 | Jun 6, 2024 | Success | Jun 15, 2024 | -9 | 67,895 |
Download the data
Monthly launch counts (CSV)Starship launch timing (CSV)
One row per settled market period. Per-contract price histories are not included. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.
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Methodology
- Markets. Kalshi’s
KXSPACEXCOUNTmonthly “more than X launches” contracts (annual events excluded) and Starship timing seriesKXSPACEXSTARSHIPandSPACEXSTARSHIP, from Kalshi’s public API. Kalshi settles on SpaceX’s own launch list. Launch-count medians use prices 14 days before close (hourly-candle midpoint, else last trade); Starship medians use prices 7 days before the actual launch. - Launch data. Launch Library 2 by The Space Devs: every SpaceX launch with status success, failure or partial failure, grouped by month in Eastern time. A Starship market is matched to the first Starship flight between its last NO date and its first YES date.
- Limits. Monthly counts move in whole launches, so medians are coarse; Starship markets list a few dates and some flights were scored on thin trading; Launch Library 2 is a community-maintained database, not SpaceX’s own list. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Oct 15, 2026, 11:03 AM ET.
Cite this research
Suggested citation: PredictionScout. (2026, October 15). How Accurate Are SpaceX Launch Prediction Markets? Kalshi vs. Launch Library. https://predictionscout.com/research/spacex-launch-prediction-markets/
For a chart or news story: “Source: PredictionScout analysis of public exchange data (https://predictionscout.com/research/spacex-launch-prediction-markets/)”
The data and charts on this page are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page. Market data: Kalshi. Launch data: The Space Devs, Launch Library 2.
Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket, with launch data from The Space Devs. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.
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