Presidential approval markets: how often Kalshi's favorite range won

How Accurate Are Presidential Approval Prediction Markets? Kalshi’s Weekly Track Record

Kalshi’s favored range for the weekly presidential approval average was right in 26 of 40 weeks in 2026.

Each week Kalshi lists a set of ranges for the President’s approval rating in the RealClearPolitics average at 11 AM ET on Friday. We looked at which range traders favored 24 hours before settlement and whether it won, for 232 weekly events since Mar 25, 2022. With about 8 ranges listed per week in 2026, guessing at random would be right about 12% of the time.

Kalshi market data, pulled Oct 15, 2026, 10:55 AM ET. Updated daily (new result every Friday).

By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Oct 15, 2026, 10:55 AM ET

232weekly events scored
65%favorite right, 2026
43.7¢avg. price on winning range, 2026
45 of 59favorites at 60¢+ that won

Key findings

  • 2026: favorite right 26 of 40 weeks (65%). The favorite’s average price was 51.5¢, so the market itself expected to miss more often than not.
  • Winning range priced at 43.7¢ on average in 2026, against about 12.5¢ for a random pick among the listed ranges.
  • Confident weeks. When the favorite was priced at 60¢ or more a day before, it won 45 of 59 times.
  • Last 8 weeks: 4 of 8. Most recent settled week: Oct 9, 2026; the favored range was 38.2 to 38.4 at 48.5¢ and the result landed in 37.6 to 37.8.
  • What this does and does not measure. These markets forecast a polling average one day ahead, not public opinion itself, and not any election. A week’s result depends on which polls RealClearPolitics adds or drops.
Presidential approval markets: how often Kalshi's favorite range wonPresidential approval markets: how often Kalshi's favorite range won016324864802022: 482023: 652024: 642025: 602026: 652022: 122023: 112024: 112025: 152026: 1220222023202420252026Favorite right (%)Random pick (%)Share of weeks, %Kalshi; RealClearPolitics (settlement source); PredictionScout
Share of weekly events in which the range Kalshi traders favored a day before was the one that settled YES, against a random pick among the listed ranges.

By year

Rows before January 20, 2025 refer to President Biden’s approval; later rows to President Trump’s. The number of ranges listed each week grew over time, which makes later years harder to call.

YearWeeksFavorite rightFavorite’s average priceAverage price on the winning rangeRanges listed (median)
20264026 (65%)51.5¢43.7¢8
20255030 (60%)65.8¢50.2¢6
20245032 (64%)45.2¢37.4¢9
20235234 (65%)48.1¢43.1¢9
20224019 (48%)48.7¢36.9¢9

Last 26 weeks

Settled (Friday)Favored range 24h beforePriceFavorite won?Price on the winning rangeRanges listedContracts traded
Oct 9, 202638.2 to 38.448.5¢✗3.4¢8154,177
Oct 2, 202638.2 to 38.436.7¢✓36.7¢8143,379
Sep 25, 2026Below 38.864¢✗24.9¢8332,510
Sep 18, 202639.7 to 39.936.8¢✓36.8¢8177,867
Sep 11, 202639.4 to 39.649¢✗23.8¢8167,855
Sep 4, 202639.7 to 39.943.1¢✓43.1¢8175,383
Aug 28, 202639.4 to 39.651.4¢✗31.1¢8142,021
Aug 21, 202639.4 to 39.646¢✓46¢8143,390
Aug 14, 202639.1 to 39.364.6¢✓64.6¢879,508
Aug 7, 202639.2 to 39.453¢✓53¢8125,946
Jul 31, 2026Below 40.293.6¢✓93.6¢8323,767
Jul 24, 202640.8 to 41.046.9¢✓46.9¢8359,130
Jul 17, 202640.8 to 41.046.6¢✗31.2¢8331,684
Jul 10, 202640.8 to 41.048.1¢✓48.1¢8232,342
Jul 3, 202640.5 to 40.760.1¢✗27.2¢8144,942
Jun 26, 202640.5 to 40.741.4¢✓41.4¢8216,420
Jun 19, 202640.5 to 40.752.5¢✓52.5¢8269,141
Jun 12, 202640.2 to 40.447.6¢✓47.6¢8166,548
Jun 5, 202640.2 to 40.441¢✓41¢8124,139
May 29, 202639.3 to 39.547.5¢✗27.4¢880,672
May 22, 2026Below 39.995.6¢✓95.6¢8188,067
May 15, 202639.9 to 40.136.8¢✗32.5¢8113,452
May 8, 202640.5 to 40.739.5¢✓39.5¢8103,073
May 1, 202641.1 to 41.327.2¢✗15¢8157,090
Apr 24, 2026Below 41.191.5¢✓91.5¢8138,129
Apr 17, 202641.1 to 41.333.1¢✗30.9¢886,206

Ranges are Kalshi’s contract labels. The RealClearPolitics values each week settled on are not reproduced here; see RealClearPolitics for its average.

Download the data

Weekly approval markets track record (CSV)

One row per weekly event: the favored range and its price 24 hours before, whether it won and the price on the winning range. RealClearPolitics values are not included. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.

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Methodology

  • Markets. Kalshi’s weekly presidential approval series (KXAPRPOTUS; earlier events under APRPOTUS), from Kalshi’s public API. Each event lists several ranges and settles on the President’s approval rating in the RealClearPolitics average at the time in Kalshi’s rules (currently 11 AM ET Friday).
  • Scoring. Every range’s price 24 hours before the event closed (hourly-candle midpoint when the spread is 10¢ or less, else the last trade, looking back up to 48 hours), scaled so the ranges add up to 100%. The favorite is the highest-priced range. Events where not exactly one range settled YES are skipped. The “random pick” baseline is 1 divided by the number of ranges.
  • Neutrality. This page measures forecasting accuracy only. It does not report or interpret approval levels, and RealClearPolitics data are attributed, not republished.
  • Limits. One exchange; a polling average rather than a poll; the number of listed ranges changed over time; older archived markets have thinner price history. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Oct 15, 2026, 10:55 AM ET.

Cite this research

Suggested citation: PredictionScout. (2026, October 15). How Accurate Are Presidential Approval Prediction Markets? Kalshi’s Weekly Track Record. https://predictionscout.com/research/presidential-approval-prediction-market-accuracy/

For a chart or news story: “Source: PredictionScout analysis of public exchange data (https://predictionscout.com/research/presidential-approval-prediction-market-accuracy/)”

The data and charts on this page are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page. Market data: Kalshi. Settlement source: RealClearPolitics presidential approval average (attributed, not reproduced).

Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.

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