Kalshi’s favorite won 8 of 16 Emmy categories at the 78th Emmys.
At noon Eastern on ceremony day we took the price of every nominee Kalshi listed and compared the favorite with the winner announced by the Television Academy. Across 42 categories at three ceremonies, the favorite won 29 times (69%).
Kalshi market data and Television Academy winners, pulled Oct 15, 2026, 10:54 AM ET. Updated weekly (new data after each September ceremony).
By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Oct 15, 2026, 10:54 AM ET
Key findings
- 2026: favorites won 8 of 16. Misses: Comedy Series (Widow's Bay won at 35¢, favorite Hacks at 54¢); Lead Actress, Limited/Movie (Sally Field won at , favorite Carey Mulligan at 27.5¢); Supporting Actor, Comedy (Stephen Root won at , favorite Harrison Ford at 70¢); Supporting Actor, Drama (Tom Pelphrey won at 23.5¢, favorite Patrick Ball at 34¢); Supporting Actor, Limited/Movie (David Harbour won at 31¢, favorite Charles Melton at 50¢); Supporting Actress, Drama (Allison Janney won at 2.5¢, favorite Katherine LaNasa at 63¢); Supporting Actress, Limited/Movie (Linda Cardellini won at , favorite Naomi Watts at 3.5¢); Television Movie (Remarkably Bright Creatures won at , favorite Swiped at 3.5¢).
- Strong favorites held. Nominees priced at 70¢ or more won 19 of 21 times.
- Biggest upset: Jeff Hiller, Supporting Actor, Comedy, 2025. Priced at 1.5¢ at noon ET on ceremony day; the favorite was Ike Barinholtz at 53.5¢.
- Earlier ceremonies: 21 of 26. Kalshi listed fewer categories before 2025.
- Winner check. 42 of 42 Kalshi settlements match the winner on the Television Academy’s site.
Every scored Emmys market
| Ceremony | Category | Winner (Television Academy) | Kalshi favorite at noon ET | Winner’s price | Winner’s rank | Favorite won? | Contracts traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78th (Sep 14, 2026) | Comedy Series | Widow's Bay | Hacks (54¢) | 35¢ | #3 | ✗ | 363,805 |
| 78th (Sep 14, 2026) | Drama Series | The Pitt | The Pitt (63¢) | 63¢ | #1 | ✓ | 296,554 |
| 78th (Sep 14, 2026) | Lead Actor, Comedy | Matthew Rhys | Matthew Rhys (70¢) | 70¢ | #1 | ✓ | 114,009 |
| 78th (Sep 14, 2026) | Lead Actor, Drama | Noah Wyle | Noah Wyle (85¢) | 85¢ | #1 | ✓ | 89,412 |
| 78th (Sep 14, 2026) | Lead Actor, Limited/Movie | Matthew Rhys | Matthew Rhys (48.5¢) | 48.5¢ | #1 | ✓ | 130,583 |
| 78th (Sep 14, 2026) | Lead Actress, Comedy | Jean Smart | Jean Smart (71¢) | 71¢ | #1 | ✓ | 159,979 |
| 78th (Sep 14, 2026) | Lead Actress, Drama | Rhea Seehorn | Rhea Seehorn (67¢) | 67¢ | #1 | ✓ | 125,727 |
| 78th (Sep 14, 2026) | Lead Actress, Limited/Movie | Sally Field | Carey Mulligan (27.5¢) | ✗ | 144,919 | ||
| 78th (Sep 14, 2026) | Limited or Anthology Series | DTF St. Louis | DTF St. Louis (90¢) | 90¢ | #1 | ✓ | 227,116 |
| 78th (Sep 14, 2026) | Supporting Actor, Comedy | Stephen Root | Harrison Ford (70¢) | ✗ | 175,325 | ||
| 78th (Sep 14, 2026) | Supporting Actor, Drama | Tom Pelphrey | Patrick Ball (34¢) | 23.5¢ | #2 | ✗ | 133,307 |
| 78th (Sep 14, 2026) | Supporting Actor, Limited/Movie | David Harbour | Charles Melton (50¢) | 31¢ | #2 | ✗ | 53,100 |
| 78th (Sep 14, 2026) | Supporting Actress, Comedy | Kate O'Flynn | Kate O'Flynn (33¢) | 33¢ | #1 | ✓ | 165,813 |
| 78th (Sep 14, 2026) | Supporting Actress, Drama | Allison Janney | Katherine LaNasa (63¢) | 2.5¢ | #5 | ✗ | 120,808 |
| 78th (Sep 14, 2026) | Supporting Actress, Limited/Movie | Linda Cardellini | Naomi Watts (3.5¢) | ✗ | 79,332 | ||
| 78th (Sep 14, 2026) | Television Movie | Remarkably Bright Creatures | Swiped (3.5¢) | ✗ | 21,650 | ||
| 77th (Sep 14, 2025) | Comedy Series | The Studio | The Studio (90.5¢) | 90.5¢ | #1 | ✓ | 911,842 |
| 77th (Sep 14, 2025) | Drama Series | The Pitt | Severance (62¢) | 37.5¢ | #2 | ✗ | 3,187,898 |
| 77th (Sep 14, 2025) | Lead Actor, Comedy | Seth Rogen | Seth Rogen (91.5¢) | 91.5¢ | #1 | ✓ | 448,830 |
| 77th (Sep 14, 2025) | Lead Actor, Drama | Noah Wyle | Noah Wyle (91.5¢) | 91.5¢ | #1 | ✓ | 634,233 |
| 77th (Sep 14, 2025) | Lead Actor, Limited/Movie | Stephen Graham | Colin Farrell (68¢) | 30¢ | #2 | ✗ | 52,919 |
| 77th (Sep 14, 2025) | Lead Actress, Comedy | Jean Smart | Jean Smart (93¢) | 93¢ | #1 | ✓ | 268,815 |
| 77th (Sep 14, 2025) | Lead Actress, Drama | Britt Lower | Kathy Bates (86.5¢) | 9.5¢ | #2 | ✗ | 375,162 |
| 77th (Sep 14, 2025) | Lead Actress, Limited/Movie | Cristin Milioti | Cristin Milioti (61¢) | 61¢ | #1 | ✓ | 41,613 |
| 77th (Sep 14, 2025) | Limited or Anthology Series | Adolescence | Adolescence (93.5¢) | 93.5¢ | #1 | ✓ | 56,621 |
| 77th (Sep 14, 2025) | Reality Competition Program | The Traitors | The Traitors (94¢) | 94¢ | #1 | ✓ | 8,607 |
| 77th (Sep 14, 2025) | Scripted Variety Series | Last Week Tonight With John Oliver | Last Week Tonight With John Oliver (87¢) | 87¢ | #1 | ✓ | 7,304 |
| 77th (Sep 14, 2025) | Supporting Actor, Comedy | Jeff Hiller | Ike Barinholtz (53.5¢) | 1.5¢ | #4 | ✗ | 40,885 |
| 77th (Sep 14, 2025) | Supporting Actor, Drama | Tramell Tillman | Tramell Tillman (55¢) | 55¢ | #1 | ✓ | 55,243 |
| 77th (Sep 14, 2025) | Supporting Actor, Limited/Movie | Owen Cooper | Owen Cooper (92¢) | 92¢ | #1 | ✓ | 36,698 |
| 77th (Sep 14, 2025) | Supporting Actress, Comedy | Hannah Einbinder | Hannah Einbinder (61¢) | 61¢ | #1 | ✓ | 70,970 |
| 77th (Sep 14, 2025) | Supporting Actress, Drama | Katherine LaNasa | Carrie Coon (61.5¢) | 37¢ | #2 | ✗ | 73,099 |
| 77th (Sep 14, 2025) | Supporting Actress, Limited/Movie | Erin Doherty | Erin Doherty (77.5¢) | 77.5¢ | #1 | ✓ | 35,803 |
| 77th (Sep 14, 2025) | Talk Series | The Late Show With Stephen Colbert | The Late Show With Stephen Colbert (82.5¢) | 82.5¢ | #1 | ✓ | 74,239 |
| 77th (Sep 14, 2025) | Television Movie | Rebel Ridge | Rebel Ridge (95¢) | 95¢ | #1 | ✓ | 12,599 |
| 77th (Sep 14, 2025) | Variety Special (Live) | SNL50: The Anniversary Special | SNL50: The Anniversary Special (90¢) | 90¢ | #1 | ✓ | 27,899 |
| 75th (Jan 15, 2024) | Comedy Series | The Bear | The Bear (57.5¢) | 57.5¢ | #1 | ✓ | 48,514 |
| 75th (Jan 15, 2024) | Drama Series | Succession | Succession (90¢) | 90¢ | #1 | ✓ | 20,011 |
| 75th (Jan 15, 2024) | Lead Actor, Comedy | Jeremy Allen White | Jeremy Allen White (86¢) | 86¢ | #1 | ✓ | 4,557 |
| 75th (Jan 15, 2024) | Lead Actor, Drama | Kieran Culkin | Kieran Culkin (64.5¢) | 64.5¢ | #1 | ✓ | 30,860 |
| 75th (Jan 15, 2024) | Lead Actress, Comedy | Quinta Burnson | Quinta Burnson (50¢) | 50¢ | #1 | ✓ | 15,479 |
| 75th (Jan 15, 2024) | Lead Actress, Drama | Sarah Snook | Sarah Snook (90¢) | 90¢ | #1 | ✓ | 8,421 |
Prices are hourly-candle midpoints (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢) at noon ET on ceremony day, looking back up to 48 hours. Older (archived) markets have less bid/ask history, so their prices are less reliable.
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Emmys markets vs winners (CSV)
One row per settled market period. Per-contract price histories are not included. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.
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Methodology
- Markets. Kalshi’s Primetime Emmy category series (for example
KXEMMYDSERIES,KXEMMYCACTR), one market per nominee, from Kalshi’s public API. Each nominee’s price at noon Eastern time on ceremony day. - Winners. Kalshi’s settlement (the market that resolved YES), checked against the winner cards on the Television Academy’s nominees and winners pages. Rows that could not be matched automatically are marked.
- Limits. About 15 to 20 categories a year is a small sample; some nominees trade thinly; the 75th ceremony was postponed to January 2024. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Oct 15, 2026, 10:54 AM ET.
Cite this research
Suggested citation: PredictionScout. (2026, October 15). How Accurate Are Prediction Markets on the Emmys? Kalshi’s Favorites vs. the Winners. https://predictionscout.com/research/emmys-prediction-market-accuracy/
For a chart or news story: “Source: PredictionScout analysis of public exchange data (https://predictionscout.com/research/emmys-prediction-market-accuracy/)”
The data and charts on this page are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page. Market data: Kalshi. Winners: Television Academy.
Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket, with winners from the Television Academy. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.
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