How Accurate Are Prediction Markets on Retail Sales? Kalshi vs. the Census First Print

By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 AM ET

Key findings

• Typical miss: 0.1 points. Median miss 0.12 points, average 0.22, over 5 releases where the market median fell inside the listed contracts.
• Threshold contracts right 85% of the time. 35 of 41 “above X%” contracts went the way the market leaned a day before.
• Biggest miss: Jul 2026. Market median -0.11%, first print -0.6%.
• 2 releases beyond the listed range. Mar 2026: the market leaned above its highest listed threshold (1.2%) a day before; first print 1.7%; Aug 2026: the market leaned above its highest listed threshold (0.8%) a day before; first print 1.2%. These are shown but not scored.
• First prints move. The largest revision so far: February 2026, first reported at 0.6%, now 0.9%. Kalshi markets are settled on the first print and are not reopened.

First print vs. today’s number

Kalshi settles on the Census Bureau’s advance estimate. The Bureau revises it the following month and again in annual updates. Here is each scored month’s first print next to the current published value.

Retail sales, monthly change (advance estimate)

Across 5 releases from Apr 1, 2026 to Aug 14, 2026, the market’s median a day before was off by 0.12 pt in a typical release (median miss) and 0.22 pt on average. The number came in above the market median 2 times and below it 3 times. Of 41 individual “above X” contracts, the side priced above 50¢ a day out was right 35 times (85%).

Highlighted rows missed by more than 0.30 pt. Official values: Census Bureau advance monthly retail and food services sales (total, seasonally adjusted), month-over-month change as first published, from ALFRED series RSAFS.

Download the data

Release-by-release scorecard (CSV)

One row per settled Kalshi event: the market median 24 hours before, Kalshi’s settlement value, the official first-release value and the miss. Per-contract prices are not included. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.

Methodology

• Markets. Kalshi’s KXUSRETAIL series: ladders of “above X%” contracts on the monthly change in advance U.S. retail and food services sales, from Kalshi’s public API. The series has run only since early 2026, so the sample is small.
• Official data. Census Bureau Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report; first-published and current values from ALFRED series RSAFS, rounded to 0.1.
• Market median. For each release we take every “above X” contract’s price 24 hours before trading closed (midpoint of bid and ask from hourly candles when the spread is 10¢ or less, otherwise the last trade; looking back up to 48 hours). Prices are forced to fall as the threshold rises, and the median is the point where the implied chance crosses 50%, interpolated between neighboring thresholds. If the 50% point falls outside the listed thresholds the release is shown but not scored.
• Contracts called right. Each threshold contract counts once: right if the side priced above 50¢ a day before won. Contracts priced exactly 50¢ are skipped.
• Actual value. The value Kalshi settled on (its “expiration value”), which follows the first official release. We check it against the first-release value in ALFRED (St. Louis Fed’s archive of data as first published) and mark any difference.
• Limits. One exchange; thin trading in some older and far-out contracts; the market median is a summary of a full distribution, not a single forecast. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 AM ET.

Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket, with retail sales data from the Census Bureau. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.

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