Chart: Kalshi price of the eventual Fed decision 30, 7 and 1 day before each FOMC meeting since 2023

How Accurate Are Prediction Markets on Fed Decisions? Kalshi’s FOMC Track Record

Kalshi’s Fed markets picked the right decision at 28 of 28 FOMC meetings the day before.

A month out, the favorite was right 25 of 27 times. The misses were the Fed’s biggest surprises.

Every scheduled FOMC meeting with a Kalshi decision market, May 3, 2023 to Sep 16, 2026. Data updated Oct 1, 2026, 11:28 PM ET.

Next meeting: Oct 28, 2026

As of Oct 1, 2026, 11:28 PM ET, Kalshi traders price Hold at 72¢ and Hike 25bp at 28¢. Based on the record below, a favorite in that range is usually but not always right a month out. Live odds · Kalshi market

Key findings

  • 28 for 28 the day before. 24 hours before each announcement, the highest-priced outcome was the decision the Fed made every time. The average favorite price was 95¢.
  • 27 of 28 a week before (average favorite price 93¢) and 25 of 27 a month before (average 84¢).
  • Miss: Sep 18, 2024 (Cut >25bp). 30 days out, “Cut 25bp” led at 81.5¢ while the eventual Cut >25bp was 14¢; 7 days out, “Cut 25bp” led at 94¢ while the eventual Cut >25bp was 6¢.
  • Miss: Sep 16, 2026 (Hike 25bp). 30 days out, “Hold” led at 72.5¢ while the eventual Hike 25bp was 26.5¢.
  • Last-minute wobble: Sep 18, 2024. One hour before the announcement, traders had swung back to “Cut 25bp” at 57¢, with the eventual Cut >25bp at 43¢. A day earlier the market had it right.
  • Every result checks out. All 28 of 28 Kalshi settlements match the change in the Fed’s upper target rate in FRED (DFEDTARU).
  • Markets usually knew early. At the median meeting, the eventual decision had already been the favorite for 42 days before the announcement. At 22 of 28 meetings it led for the entire 45-day window we measured (or since the market opened).
  • 609,242,717 contracts traded across these 28 decision markets (each contract pays $1 if right; this is a count of contracts, not dollars wagered).

How confident was the market in what actually happened?

Kalshi price of the eventual Fed decision before each FOMC meetingFor each FOMC meeting since May 2023, dots show the Kalshi price of the outcome that actually happened 30 days, 7 days and 1 day before the announcement. Red markers show when that outcome was not the favorite.0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢2023-05-03 · Hike 25bp · 7 days before: 87.0¢2023-05-03 · Hike 25bp · 1 day before: 92.5¢May 232023-06-14 · Hold · 30 days before: 82.5¢2023-06-14 · Hold · 7 days before: 79.5¢2023-06-14 · Hold · 1 day before: 95.5¢Jun 232023-07-26 · Hike 25bp · 30 days before: 75.5¢2023-07-26 · Hike 25bp · 7 days before: 96.5¢2023-07-26 · Hike 25bp · 1 day before: 99.5¢Jul 232023-09-20 · Hold · 30 days before: 89.5¢2023-09-20 · Hold · 7 days before: 97.0¢2023-09-20 · Hold · 1 day before: 98.5¢Sep 232023-11-01 · Hold · 30 days before: 74.0¢2023-11-01 · Hold · 7 days before: 98.5¢2023-11-01 · Hold · 1 day before: 98.5¢Nov 232023-12-13 · Hold · 30 days before: 91.5¢2023-12-13 · Hold · 7 days before: 99.0¢2023-12-13 · Hold · 1 day before: 99.0¢Dec 232024-01-31 · Hold · 30 days before: 96.5¢2024-01-31 · Hold · 7 days before: 99.5¢2024-01-31 · Hold · 1 day before: 99.5¢Jan 242024-03-20 · Hold · 30 days before: 96.5¢2024-03-20 · Hold · 7 days before: 99.5¢2024-03-20 · Hold · 1 day before: 99.5¢Mar 242024-05-01 · Hold · 30 days before: 92.5¢2024-05-01 · Hold · 7 days before: 98.5¢2024-05-01 · Hold · 1 day before: 99.5¢May 242024-06-12 · Hold · 30 days before: 94.5¢2024-06-12 · Hold · 7 days before: 97.5¢2024-06-12 · Hold · 1 day before: 98.5¢Jun 242024-07-31 · Hold · 30 days before: 94.5¢2024-07-31 · Hold · 7 days before: 95.5¢2024-07-31 · Hold · 1 day before: 97.5¢Jul 242024-09-18 · Cut >25bp · 30 days before: 14.0¢ (not the favorite)2024-09-18 · Cut >25bp · 7 days before: 6.0¢ (not the favorite)2024-09-18 · Cut >25bp · 1 day before: 54.5¢Sep 242024-11-07 · Cut 25bp · 30 days before: 78.5¢2024-11-07 · Cut 25bp · 7 days before: 87.0¢2024-11-07 · Cut 25bp · 1 day before: 95.0¢Nov 242024-12-18 · Cut 25bp · 30 days before: 58.5¢2024-12-18 · Cut 25bp · 7 days before: 93.5¢2024-12-18 · Cut 25bp · 1 day before: 96.5¢Dec 242025-01-29 · Hold · 30 days before: 89.5¢2025-01-29 · Hold · 7 days before: 98.5¢2025-01-29 · Hold · 1 day before: 99.5¢Jan 252025-03-19 · Hold · 30 days before: 96.5¢2025-03-19 · Hold · 7 days before: 98.5¢2025-03-19 · Hold · 1 day before: 99.5¢Mar 252025-05-07 · Hold · 30 days before: 70.5¢2025-05-07 · Hold · 7 days before: 89.5¢2025-05-07 · Hold · 1 day before: 96.5¢May 252025-06-18 · Hold · 30 days before: 87.5¢2025-06-18 · Hold · 7 days before: 96.5¢2025-06-18 · Hold · 1 day before: 97.5¢Jun 252025-07-30 · Hold · 30 days before: 81.5¢2025-07-30 · Hold · 7 days before: 94.5¢2025-07-30 · Hold · 1 day before: 97.5¢Jul 252025-09-17 · Cut 25bp · 30 days before: 71.5¢2025-09-17 · Cut 25bp · 7 days before: 81.5¢2025-09-17 · Cut 25bp · 1 day before: 94.5¢Sep 252025-10-29 · Cut 25bp · 30 days before: 80.5¢2025-10-29 · Cut 25bp · 7 days before: 95.5¢2025-10-29 · Cut 25bp · 1 day before: 98.5¢Oct 252025-12-10 · Cut 25bp · 30 days before: 69.5¢2025-12-10 · Cut 25bp · 7 days before: 93.5¢2025-12-10 · Cut 25bp · 1 day before: 96.5¢Dec 252026-01-28 · Hold · 30 days before: 85.5¢2026-01-28 · Hold · 7 days before: 97.5¢2026-01-28 · Hold · 1 day before: 98.5¢Jan 262026-03-18 · Hold · 30 days before: 92.0¢2026-03-18 · Hold · 7 days before: 98.5¢2026-03-18 · Hold · 1 day before: 99.5¢Mar 262026-04-29 · Hold · 30 days before: 97.5¢2026-04-29 · Hold · 7 days before: 98.5¢2026-04-29 · Hold · 1 day before: 99.5¢Apr 262026-06-17 · Hold · 30 days before: 96.5¢2026-06-17 · Hold · 7 days before: 98.5¢2026-06-17 · Hold · 1 day before: 99.5¢Jun 262026-07-29 · Hold · 30 days before: 81.5¢2026-07-29 · Hold · 7 days before: 76.5¢2026-07-29 · Hold · 1 day before: 78.5¢Jul 262026-09-16 · Hike 25bp · 30 days before: 26.5¢ (not the favorite)2026-09-16 · Hike 25bp · 7 days before: 56.5¢2026-09-16 · Hike 25bp · 1 day before: 86.5¢Sep 2630 days before7 days before1 day beforeoutcome was NOT the favoriteSource: PredictionScout analysis of Kalshi data · predictionscout.com
Each column is one FOMC meeting. Dots show the Kalshi price of the decision the Fed actually made, 30 days, 7 days and 1 day before the 2:00 p.m. ET announcement. Red means that outcome was not the favorite at that point. Hover or tap a dot for details.

Every FOMC meeting, side by side

The favorite is the highest-priced outcome at each point in time. ✓ means it was the decision the Fed made. Highlighted rows contain a miss.

MeetingDecisionFavorite 30 days outFavorite 7 days outFavorite 1 day outFRED check (upper bound)Contracts traded
May 3, 2023Hike 25bpno market yetHike 25bp 87¢ ✓Hike 25bp 92.5¢ ✓+25bp → 5.25% ✓332,257
Jun 14, 2023HoldHold 82.5¢ ✓Hold 79.5¢ ✓Hold 95.5¢ ✓+0bp → 5.25% ✓455,278
Jul 26, 2023Hike 25bpHike 25bp 75.5¢ ✓Hike 25bp 96.5¢ ✓Hike 25bp 99.5¢ ✓+25bp → 5.50% ✓225,688
Sep 20, 2023HoldHold 89.5¢ ✓Hold 97¢ ✓Hold 98.5¢ ✓+0bp → 5.50% ✓246,231
Nov 1, 2023HoldHold 74¢ ✓Hold 98.5¢ ✓Hold 98.5¢ ✓+0bp → 5.50% ✓304,136
Dec 13, 2023HoldHold 91.5¢ ✓Hold 99¢ ✓Hold 99¢ ✓+0bp → 5.50% ✓144,860
Jan 31, 2024HoldHold 96.5¢ ✓Hold 99.5¢ ✓Hold 99.5¢ ✓+0bp → 5.50% ✓283,044
Mar 20, 2024HoldHold 96.5¢ ✓Hold 99.5¢ ✓Hold 99.5¢ ✓+0bp → 5.50% ✓435,669
May 1, 2024HoldHold 92.5¢ ✓Hold 98.5¢ ✓Hold 99.5¢ ✓+0bp → 5.50% ✓619,198
Jun 12, 2024HoldHold 94.5¢ ✓Hold 97.5¢ ✓Hold 98.5¢ ✓+0bp → 5.50% ✓889,026
Jul 31, 2024HoldHold 94.5¢ ✓Hold 95.5¢ ✓Hold 97.5¢ ✓+0bp → 5.50% ✓1,111,574
Sep 18, 2024Cut >25bpCut 25bp 81.5¢ ✗Cut 25bp 94¢ ✗Cut >25bp 54.5¢ ✓-50bp → 5.00% ✓2,447,178
Nov 7, 2024Cut 25bpCut 25bp 78.5¢ ✓Cut 25bp 87¢ ✓Cut 25bp 95¢ ✓-25bp → 4.75% ✓1,104,684
Dec 18, 2024Cut 25bpCut 25bp 58.5¢ ✓Cut 25bp 93.5¢ ✓Cut 25bp 96.5¢ ✓-25bp → 4.50% ✓3,643,679
Jan 29, 2025HoldHold 89.5¢ ✓Hold 98.5¢ ✓Hold 99.5¢ ✓+0bp → 4.50% ✓2,033,985
Mar 19, 2025HoldHold 96.5¢ ✓Hold 98.5¢ ✓Hold 99.5¢ ✓+0bp → 4.50% ✓2,849,985
May 7, 2025HoldHold 70.5¢ ✓Hold 89.5¢ ✓Hold 96.5¢ ✓+0bp → 4.50% ✓41,343,139
Jun 18, 2025HoldHold 87.5¢ ✓Hold 96.5¢ ✓Hold 97.5¢ ✓+0bp → 4.50% ✓36,504,721
Jul 30, 2025HoldHold 81.5¢ ✓Hold 94.5¢ ✓Hold 97.5¢ ✓+0bp → 4.50% ✓48,053,671
Sep 17, 2025Cut 25bpCut 25bp 71.5¢ ✓Cut 25bp 81.5¢ ✓Cut 25bp 94.5¢ ✓-25bp → 4.25% ✓91,819,656
Oct 29, 2025Cut 25bpCut 25bp 80.5¢ ✓Cut 25bp 95.5¢ ✓Cut 25bp 98.5¢ ✓-25bp → 4.00% ✓39,093,798
Dec 10, 2025Cut 25bpCut 25bp 69.5¢ ✓Cut 25bp 93.5¢ ✓Cut 25bp 96.5¢ ✓-25bp → 3.75% ✓39,982,396
Jan 28, 2026HoldHold 85.5¢ ✓Hold 97.5¢ ✓Hold 98.5¢ ✓+0bp → 3.75% ✓35,976,526
Mar 18, 2026HoldHold 92¢ ✓Hold 98.5¢ ✓Hold 99.5¢ ✓+0bp → 3.75% ✓34,397,322
Apr 29, 2026HoldHold 97.5¢ ✓Hold 98.5¢ ✓Hold 99.5¢ ✓+0bp → 3.75% ✓19,806,793
Jun 17, 2026HoldHold 96.5¢ ✓Hold 98.5¢ ✓Hold 99.5¢ ✓+0bp → 3.75% ✓33,177,223
Jul 29, 2026HoldHold 81.5¢ ✓Hold 76.5¢ ✓Hold 78.5¢ ✓+0bp → 3.75% ✓68,755,747
Sep 16, 2026Hike 25bpHold 72.5¢ ✗Hike 25bp 56.5¢ ✓Hike 25bp 86.5¢ ✓+25bp → 4.00% ✓103,205,253

Were the prices calibrated?

If prices are honest probabilities, contracts priced around 80¢ should win about 80% of the time. Here is every outcome contract (not just favorites) 30 days before each meeting. The samples are small, so read the counts, not just the rates.

Price 30 days outContractsResolved YESHit rate
0–10¢9000%
10–20¢10110%
20–30¢6117%
30–40¢100%
50–60¢11100%
60–70¢11100%
70–80¢6583%
80–90¢9889%
90–100¢1010100%

Brier score (lower is better; 0 is perfect) across all outcome contracts: 0.0041 one day out, 0.0180 one week out, 0.0300 one month out (140, 140 and 134 contract prices).

Download the data

Meeting-level CSVAll contract prices CSV

The meeting file has one row per FOMC meeting: the favorite and its price at each horizon, the price of the eventual outcome, the FRED check, and contracts traded. The price file has every outcome contract at each horizon. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0.

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Methodology

  • Markets. Kalshi’s “Fed decision” series (KXFEDDECISION, including the older FEDDECISION-* events), pulled from Kalshi’s public historical and live market API. Each meeting has 4–6 mutually exclusive outcome contracts (for example “Cut 25bps”, “Fed maintains rate”, “Hike 25bps”). The series starts with the May 2023 meeting, so the February and March 2023 meetings are not covered. One duplicate January 2024 event with no trading was excluded.
  • Timing. Horizons are measured back from 2:00 p.m. ET on the decision day (when the FOMC statement is released): exactly 24 hours, 7 days and 30 days before (plus 1 hour before, reported in the CSV). We use hourly candlesticks and take the last hour that closed at or before that moment.
  • Price. The midpoint of the closing bid and ask when the spread is 10¢ or less; otherwise the last traded price. Prices are in cents and read as implied probabilities.
  • Favorite. The highest-priced outcome at that moment. A “win” means the favorite was the outcome that settled YES.
  • Verification. Every settled result was checked against the change in the federal funds target range upper limit (FRED series DFEDTARU) from the day before to the day after the meeting.
  • “Days as favorite” counts back from the announcement to the last hour when a different outcome was priced highest, within a 45-day window.
  • Volume is Kalshi’s reported contracts traded per market, summed across each meeting’s outcomes. It is a contract count, not dollars.
  • Limits. One exchange only. 28-ish meetings is a small sample, and most were easy calls: the Fed rarely surprises markets on purpose. The useful signal is in the few hard meetings, which is why we list every miss.
  • Updates. This page is regenerated by script after each FOMC meeting. Last run: Oct 1, 2026, 11:28 PM ET.

Cite this research

Suggested citation: PredictionScout. (2026, October 1). How Accurate Are Prediction Markets on Fed Decisions? Kalshi's FOMC Track Record. https://predictionscout.com/research/fed-decision-prediction-market-accuracy/

For a chart or news story: “Source: PredictionScout analysis of public exchange data (https://predictionscout.com/research/fed-decision-prediction-market-accuracy/)”

The data and charts on this page are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page. Underlying settlement data: Kalshi. Rate data: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED.

Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket, with outcomes verified against FRED. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.

More research: PredictionScout Research · Live odds