Prediction market research you can cite.
Original studies built from public exchange APIs, court dockets, FRED, the FEC and state legislatures. Every number links to its source, every dataset is a free CSV, and every page updates by script.
How accurate are prediction markets on inflation (CPI)?
A day before each report since 2025, Kalshi’s most likely monthly CPI print was exactly right 12 of 22 times and within 0.1 point 19 times. Next report: traders’ most likely monthly print is 0.3% (30% chance).
Last updated Oct 15, 2026, 7:47 AM ET. Read the study →
2026 midterms: Kalshi vs Polymarket vs PredictIt
The two biggest exchanges pick the same favorite in 66 of 67 Senate and governor races. Daily prices, gaps, volume and FEC fundraising.
Last updated Oct 15, 2026, 7:39 AM ET. Read the study →
2026 election night: prediction market scorecard
Pre-election odds for 67 Senate and governor races on Kalshi, Polymarket and PredictIt. Kalshi’s prices imply about 7.8 upsets. Results are scored after November 3.
Last updated Oct 15, 2026, 7:39 AM ET. Read the study →
Cross-venue price gap index: Kalshi vs Polymarket vs PredictIt
On Oct 14, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket priced the same midterm race 1.11 points apart on average (49 races). With PredictIt added the average spread is 2.02 points. Updated daily.
Last updated Oct 15, 2026, 7:46 AM ET. Read the study →
Generic ballot polls vs prediction markets
Polling average D+8.0 (5 pollsters) vs 90% on Kalshi for Democrats to win the House. Daily chart through November 3.
Last updated Oct 15, 2026, 7:46 AM ET. Read the study →
Prediction market regulation tracker: CFTC and Congress
4 CFTC rule documents, 4,966 public comments, 21 federal bills and congressional hearings on prediction markets. Updated daily.
Last updated Oct 15, 2026, 7:48 AM ET. Read the study →
Fed funds futures positioning vs Kalshi Fed odds
CFTC open interest in Fed funds futures was 2.34M contracts on Oct 6, 2026; Kalshi gives a hold at the Oct 28 FOMC meeting 72%. Weekly positioning by trader group, updated daily.
Last updated Oct 15, 2026, 7:48 AM ET. Read the study →
Economic release calendar with prediction market odds
20 scheduled releases in the next 100 days. Kalshi’s market median for the CPI due Nov 10 is 0.2%. CPI, jobs, GDP and Fed dates with live market odds.
Last updated Oct 15, 2026, 7:49 AM ET. Read the study →
Prediction markets vs the official numbers: TSA, gas prices (EIA) and NYC weather
Kalshi’s gas-price median a day before settlement missed the official AAA price by 0.005 dollars on average over 10 weeks; AAA and the EIA’s weekly price differed by 1.0 cents. TSA, gas and weather markets checked against agency data.
Last updated Oct 15, 2026, 7:50 AM ET. Read the study →
Prediction market attention index (Wikipedia pageviews)
Kalshi’s Wikipedia article had 17,087 views in the last 7 days through Oct 14, 2026; Polymarket 10,702. Daily history since January 2025.
Last updated Oct 15, 2026, 7:50 AM ET. Read the study →
Prediction market App Store rankings
Kalshi is #12 on the US iPhone Top Free chart and Polymarket outside the top 100 (Oct 15, 2026). Daily ranks and rating counts for 10 apps.
Last updated Oct 15, 2026, 7:50 AM ET. Read the study →
How accurate are prediction markets on GDP?
A day before each BEA advance estimate since 2023, Kalshi’s median GDP forecast missed by a median 0.6 points (13 quarters). Live odds for Q3 2026.
Last updated Oct 15, 2026, 7:50 AM ET. Read the study →
How accurate are prediction markets on the jobs report?
Since 2025 Kalshi’s payrolls median missed by a typical 66K jobs and the unemployment rate by 0.07 points. Claims came in below the market in 44 of 59 weeks.
Last updated Oct 15, 2026, 7:51 AM ET. Read the study →
North Carolina early vote tracker 2026
33,448 ballots accepted as of Oct 15, 2026 (19 days out), against 189,375 at the same point in 2022. By method, party registration, age and county. Updated daily.
Last updated Oct 15, 2026, 7:51 AM ET. Read the study →
Recession odds: prediction markets vs professional forecasters
Forecasters see a 20% chance real GDP falls in Q4 2026; Kalshi prices 6% for negative growth that quarter. What each number measures.
Last updated Oct 15, 2026, 7:51 AM ET. Read the study →
The Fed’s dot plot vs prediction markets
Median Fed official: 1 hike by end of 2026 (4.125% midpoint). Kalshi traders give that outcome 66%. Updated daily with live odds.
Last updated Oct 15, 2026, 7:51 AM ET. Read the study →
Egg-price markets vs BLS
The side Kalshi favored a day before each BLS egg-price release won in 16 of 20 months. Latest average: $2.27 a dozen (Sep 2026).
Last updated Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 AM ET. Read the study →
Retail sales markets vs the Census first print
Kalshi’s retail sales markets missed the Census Bureau’s advance estimate by a median 0.1 points over 5 releases, plus how much each first print was revised.
Last updated Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 AM ET. Read the study →
Measles cases: CDC vs prediction markets
CDC counts 4,080 confirmed cases in 2026 through Oct 8, 2026, against a market-implied full-year total near 7,000. How past years’ markets settled vs CDC’s later count.
Last updated Oct 15, 2026, 8:00 AM ET. Read the study →
Fed Chair word markets vs the transcript
Across 14 Fed press conferences, Kalshi’s word markets leaned the right way on 83% of 545 contracts. Results cross-checked against the official transcript.
Last updated Oct 15, 2026, 7:53 AM ET. Read the study →
World central-bank decisions vs prediction markets
The outcome Kalshi favored a day before was right in 55 of 58 decisions at 11 central banks; the market favored the actual move in 18 of 21 hikes and cuts.
Last updated Oct 15, 2026, 7:53 AM ET. Read the study →
How accurate are prediction markets on core PCE?
A day before each BEA release, Kalshi’s median core PCE forecast missed the first-published monthly change by a median 0.03 points (18 months).
Last updated Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 AM ET. Read the study →
10-year Treasury yield markets vs Treasury
Kalshi’s daily 10-year markets settled on the official Treasury yield on 660 of 660 days. A day ahead they missed by a median 4.0 basis points, against 3.0 for yesterday’s yield.
Last updated Oct 15, 2026, 7:54 AM ET. Read the study →
Will 2026 be the hottest year? Markets vs NASA
NASA has 2026 at 1.23°C through Sep, against the 2024 record of 1.28°C; Kalshi gives 66%. Monthly ‘hottest ever’ markets checked against NASA.
Last updated Oct 15, 2026, 7:54 AM ET. Read the study →
PPI markets vs BLS producer prices
Kalshi’s producer price markets missed the BLS 12-month PPI change by a median 0.69 points over 6 releases, with live odds for the next release.
Last updated Oct 15, 2026, 10:19 AM ET. Read the study →
The money behind prediction markets
Federal lobbying reports and SEC Form D funding notices: 34 organizations named prediction markets in 2026 lobbying reports, and Kalshi reported $990K in in-house lobbying expenses (all issues).
Last updated Oct 15, 2026, 7:55 AM ET. Read the study →
Building permits markets vs the Census first print
Kalshi’s building permits markets missed the Census Bureau’s first print by a median 57K units (annual rate) over 6 releases, plus revisions.
Last updated Oct 15, 2026, 7:56 AM ET. Read the study →
Oil markets vs EIA: WTI price and crude stocks
Kalshi’s favorite $1 WTI price range won 45 of 120 weeks; its settlement differs from the EIA spot price by a median $0.44.
Last updated Oct 15, 2026, 7:57 AM ET. Read the study →
Earthquake markets vs USGS
Kalshi’s daily biggest-earthquake markets missed the USGS figure by a median 0.41 magnitude over 26 days, and USGS later revised the top magnitude on 13 days.
Last updated Oct 15, 2026, 7:59 AM ET. Read the study →
Tornado markets: preliminary vs final counts
Kalshi settles monthly tornado markets on NOAA’s preliminary count. For months with both, preliminary counts total 3,571 and final counts 3,504; 10 months would settle differently.
Last updated Oct 15, 2026, 7:59 AM ET. Read the study →
How we work
- Data comes from public APIs and primary records, linked on each page.
- Methodology, limitations and a downloadable CSV are on every study.
- Reuse is free under CC BY 4.0 with a link back. Each study has a suggested citation.
- Journalists and researchers: questions or corrections via our contact page.
Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.