Fed Rate Decision — September 2026: Live Odds

As of September 9, 2026, Hike 25bps is favored in the Fed Rate Decision — September 2026 market, at an implied probability of about 54% (54¢ per contract on Kalshi). Live prices below are pulled directly from Kalshi and Polymarket.

September Fed Decision Odds on Kalshi

Rows marked “no bid” have no buyer at any price. Their listed price is the exchange’s one-cent floor, not a one-percent chance.

September Fed Decision Odds on Polymarket

Where September Fed Decision Odds Have Been

Hike 25bps last closed at 54% (Sep 9, 2026). That is +19 points since Aug 10, 2026 (35%). Since Mar 16, 2026, the earliest daily price we track for this market, it has moved +49 points from 5.0%.

Across that period the market ranged from a low of 1.0% on Mar 20, 2026 to a high of 61% on Sep 2, 2026. Prices are daily closes from Kalshi.

What the Market Expects the Fed to Do

The Fed’s target range is currently 3.50%–3.75% (as of 2026-09-08). These are the prices on the decision itself:

2 further outcomes (Cut 25bps, Cut >25bps) sit at the exchange’s one-cent floor with no bid. Treat those as “no market” rather than a 1% chance — stacking penny rungs would imply a large hike is as likely as a small one.

Prices from Kalshi’s decision market for this meeting. A separate strike ladder (“above 3.50%%”, “above 3.75%%”) trades on the same event and is shown below; it prices the level of the target range upper bound after the meeting, which is cumulative across meetings, so its numbers do not line up one-to-one with a single decision. Current target range from FRED series DFEDTARU and DFEDTARL.

About This Market

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the…

How to Trade This Market

Kalshi (CFTC-regulated, all 50 states for economic and financial markets) and Polymarket (lowest fees, iOS in 49 states) both offer event markets; see our head-to-head comparison or run your trade through the fee calculator before placing it. New to event contracts? Start with how prediction markets work.

More Economics & Fed Odds

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Common Questions

Who is favored to win the Fed Rate Decision — September 2026 market?

As of September 9, 2026, Hike 25bps is favored, at an implied probability of about 54% (a 54¢ contract on Kalshi). Prices move constantly as traders buy and sell; the tables on this page show the latest synced prices.

Where can I trade the September Fed Decision market?

This market trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in all 50 states for economic and financial markets; Polymarket US is open to iOS users in 49 states. See our platform reviews for fees and details.

How do prediction market odds work?

Contracts pay $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not, so the price is the market’s implied probability: a 62¢ contract means traders collectively price a 62% chance. Odds come from real money changing hands, not from polls or pundits.

Prices synced September 9, 2026 from public Kalshi and Polymarket market data by Arthur Angelo. Odds move constantly; check the exchange for execution prices. This page is informational — not investment advice. PredictionScout may earn commissions from platform links; see our affiliate disclosure. More markets: all live odds pages.