As of September 9, 2026, Jon Ossoff is favored in the 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee market, at an implied probability of about 17% (17¢ per contract on Kalshi). Live prices below are pulled directly from Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: 2028 Democratic Nominee Odds
The same candidate often trades at different prices on different exchanges. The platforms currently disagree most on Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 16% on Kalshi vs 19% on Polymarket — gaps like this are where price-sensitive traders shop between venues.
| Candidate | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Ossoff | 17% | 16% | 0.9 pts |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 16% | 19% | 2.7 pts |
| Gavin Newsom | 13% | 14% | 1.4 pts |
| Kamala Harris | 8.3% | 7.8% | 0.5 pts |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5.5% | 5.7% | 0.2 pts |
| Josh Shapiro | 4.7% | 6.7% | 2.0 pts |
| Mark Kelly | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.6 pts |
| Andy Beshear | 3.5% | 2.6% | 0.9 pts |
| Rahm Emanuel | 3.5% | 2.6% | 0.9 pts |
| Michelle Obama | 2.5% | 0.2% | 2.3 pts |
| Wes Moore | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.9 pts |
| James Talarico | 1.9% | 2.5% | 0.6 pts |
2028 Democratic Nominee Odds on Kalshi
| Candidate | Implied probability | Price | Bid / Ask |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Ossoff | 17% | 17¢ | 16¢ / 17¢ |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 16% | 16¢ | 15¢ / 16¢ |
| Gavin Newsom | 13% | 13¢ | 13¢ / 14¢ |
| Kamala Harris | 8.3% | 8¢ | 8¢ / 8¢ |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5.5% | 6¢ | 5¢ / 6¢ |
| Josh Shapiro | 4.7% | 5¢ | 5¢ / 5¢ |
| Mark Kelly | 4.6% | 5¢ | 4¢ / 5¢ |
| Andy Beshear | 3.5% | 4¢ | 3¢ / 4¢ |
| Rahm Emanuel | 3.5% | 4¢ | 3¢ / 4¢ |
| Michelle Obama | 2.5% | 2¢ | 2¢ / 2¢ |
| Wes Moore | 2.4% | 2¢ | 2¢ / 2¢ |
| Abdul El-Sayed | 2.0% | 2¢ | 1¢ / 2¢ |
Plus 36 lower-probability outcomes not shown.
2028 Democratic Nominee Odds on Polymarket
| Candidate | Implied probability | Price | Bid / Ask |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 19% | 19¢ | 19¢ / 19¢ |
| Jon Ossoff | 16% | 16¢ | 16¢ / 16¢ |
| Gavin Newsom | 14% | 14¢ | 14¢ / 14¢ |
| Kamala Harris | 7.8% | 8¢ | 8¢ / 8¢ |
| Josh Shapiro | 6.7% | 7¢ | 6¢ / 7¢ |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5.7% | 6¢ | 6¢ / 6¢ |
| Mark Kelly | 3.0% | 3¢ | 3¢ / 3¢ |
| Andy Beshear | 2.6% | 3¢ | 3¢ / 3¢ |
| Rahm Emanuel | 2.6% | 3¢ | 2¢ / 3¢ |
| James Talarico | 2.5% | 2¢ | 2¢ / 2¢ |
| Ro Khanna | 1.8% | 2¢ | 2¢ / 2¢ |
| Wes Moore | 1.6% | 2¢ | 2¢ / 2¢ |
Plus 39 lower-probability outcomes not shown.
Where 2028 Democratic Nominee Odds Have Been
Jon Ossoff last closed at 16% (Sep 9, 2026). That is +0 points since Aug 11, 2026 (16%). Since Jul 19, 2025, the earliest daily price we track for this market, it has moved +12 points from 3.7%.
| Date | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 19, 2025 | 3.7% | — |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3.5% | — |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3.5% | — |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 5.9% | 7.0% |
| Jun 20, 2026 | 9.7% | 12% |
| Sep 9, 2026 | 16% | 17% |
Across that period the market ranged from a low of 2.6% on Nov 1, 2025 to a high of 17% on Aug 6, 2026. Prices are daily closes from Polymarket.
About the 2028 Democratic Nominee Race
The markets currently track 48 candidates in this race. Those running, as priced by traders, include Jon Ossoff, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg. Election Day is November 7, 2028. This market is scheduled to close around 2028-11-07, settling when the winner is official.
Market Odds vs Polls
Polls measure who people say they support; prediction market odds measure where traders put real money. Polling averages update every few days or weeks, while market prices react to news within minutes — including primary results, debate moments, and fundraising reports. Markets also price primary races and nominee fields before pollsters survey them. Neither is infallible: polls carry sampling error, and thin markets can be moved by a few large trades. Historically, market prices in aggregate have been well-calibrated — a 70% favorite wins about 70% of the time.
About This Market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
How to Trade This Market
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated, all 50 states for political markets) and Polymarket (lowest fees, iOS in 49 states) both offer event markets; see our head-to-head comparison or run your trade through the fee calculator before placing it. New to event contracts? Start with how prediction markets work.
More 2028 Presidential Race Odds
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Common Questions
Who is favored to win the 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee market?
As of September 9, 2026, Jon Ossoff is favored, at an implied probability of about 17% (a 17¢ contract on Kalshi). Prices move constantly as traders buy and sell; the tables on this page show the latest synced prices.
Where can I trade the 2028 Democratic Nominee market?
This market trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in all 50 states for political markets; Polymarket US is open to iOS users in 49 states. See our platform reviews for fees and details.
How do prediction market odds work?
Contracts pay $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not, so the price is the market’s implied probability: a 62¢ contract means traders collectively price a 62% chance. Odds come from real money changing hands, not from polls or pundits.
Who is running in the 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee?
The markets currently track 48 candidates. The leading names by market price are Jon Ossoff, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg. Candidate fields can change until filing deadlines pass.
When will the 2028 Democratic Nominee market settle?
Election Day is November 7, 2028; the market is scheduled to close around 2028-11-07. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 once the outcome is officially determined.
Prices synced September 9, 2026 from public Kalshi and Polymarket market data by Arthur Angelo. Odds move constantly; check the exchange for execution prices. This page is informational — not investment advice. PredictionScout may earn commissions from platform links; see our affiliate disclosure. More markets: all live odds pages.