As of September 10, 2026, Starts is the favorite in the US Recession in 2026 market, leading at an implied probability of about 6.0% (6¢ per contract on Kalshi). Live prices below are pulled directly from Kalshi and Polymarket.
2026 Recession Odds on Kalshi
| Outcome | Implied probability | Price | Bid / Ask |
|---|---|---|---|
| Starts | 6.0% | 6¢ | 5¢ / 6¢ |
2026 Recession Odds on Polymarket
| Outcome | Implied probability | Price | Bid / Ask |
|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2026? | 7.5% | 8¢ | 7¢ / 8¢ |
Market Odds vs Economic Models
These prices are the market’s live estimate of the probability of a U.S. recession — the recession odds traders will actually back with money. Model-based forecasts differ: the New York Fed’s yield-curve model, for example, publishes a probability of recession within 12 months derived from the Treasury spread. Comparing the market’s recession probability to model output is a useful sanity check in both directions; when they diverge sharply, one of them is usually about to move.
About This Market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has…
How to Trade This Market
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated, all 50 states for political markets) and Polymarket (lowest fees, iOS in 49 states) both offer event markets; see our head-to-head comparison or run your trade through the fee calculator before placing it. New to event contracts? Start with how prediction markets work.
More Economics & Fed Odds
September Fed Decision · October Fed Decision · all live odds
Common Questions
Who is favored to win the US Recession in 2026 market?
As of September 10, 2026, Starts is the favorite: prediction markets give it an implied probability of about 6.0% (a 6¢ contract on Kalshi). Prices move constantly as traders buy and sell; the tables on this page show the latest synced prices.
Where can I trade the 2026 Recession market?
This market trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in all 50 states for political markets; Polymarket US is open to iOS users in 49 states. See our platform reviews for fees and details.
How do prediction market odds work?
Contracts pay $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not, so the price is the market’s implied probability: a 62¢ contract means traders collectively price a 62% chance. Odds come from real money changing hands, not from polls or pundits.
Prices synced September 10, 2026 from public Kalshi and Polymarket market data. Odds move constantly; check the exchange for execution prices. This page is informational — not investment advice. PredictionScout may earn commissions from platform links; see our affiliate disclosure. More markets: all live odds pages.