As of September 10, 2026, Tom Cotton is the favorite in the Arkansas Senate Race 2026 market, leading at an implied probability of about 94% (94¢ per contract on Kalshi). Live prices below are pulled directly from Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Arkansas Senate Odds
The same candidate often trades at different prices on different exchanges.
| Candidate | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Cotton | 94% | 94% | 0.2 pts |
| Hallie Shoffner | 6.9% | 5.2% | 1.7 pts |
Arkansas Senate Odds on Kalshi
| Candidate | Implied probability | Price | Bid / Ask |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Cotton | 94% | 94¢ | 94¢ / 94¢ |
| Hallie Shoffner | 6.9% | 7¢ | 6¢ / 7¢ |
Arkansas Senate Odds on Polymarket
| Candidate | Implied probability | Price | Bid / Ask |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Cotton (R) | 94% | 94¢ | 94¢ / 94¢ |
| Hallie Shoffner (D) | 5.2% | 5¢ | 4¢ / 6¢ |
About the Arkansas Senate Race
The markets currently track 2 candidates in this race. Those running, as priced by traders, include Tom Cotton, Hallie Shoffner. Election Day is November 3, 2026. This market is scheduled to close around 2027-11-03, settling when the winner is official.
Market Odds vs Polls
Polls measure who people say they support; prediction market odds measure where traders put real money. Polling averages update every few days or weeks, while market prices react to news within minutes — including primary results, debate moments, and fundraising reports. Markets also price primary races and nominee fields before pollsters survey them. Neither is infallible: polls carry sampling error, and thin markets can be moved by a few large trades. Historically, market prices in aggregate have been well-calibrated — a 70% favorite wins about 70% of the time.
About This Market
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will…
How to Trade This Market
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated, all 50 states for political markets) and Polymarket (lowest fees, iOS in 49 states) both offer event markets; see our head-to-head comparison or run your trade through the fee calculator before placing it. New to event contracts? Start with how prediction markets work.
More Senate Races Odds
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Common Questions
Who is favored to win the Arkansas Senate Race 2026 market?
As of September 10, 2026, Tom Cotton is the favorite: prediction markets give it an implied probability of about 94% (a 94¢ contract on Kalshi). Prices move constantly as traders buy and sell; the tables on this page show the latest synced prices.
Where can I trade the Arkansas Senate market?
This market trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in all 50 states for political markets; Polymarket US is open to iOS users in 49 states. See our platform reviews for fees and details.
How do prediction market odds work?
Contracts pay $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not, so the price is the market’s implied probability: a 62¢ contract means traders collectively price a 62% chance. Odds come from real money changing hands, not from polls or pundits.
Who is running in the Arkansas Senate Race 2026?
The markets currently track 2 candidates. The leading names by market price are Tom Cotton, Hallie Shoffner. Candidate fields can change until filing deadlines pass.
When will the Arkansas Senate market settle?
Election Day is November 3, 2026; the market is scheduled to close around 2027-11-03. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 once the outcome is officially determined.
Prices synced September 10, 2026 from public Kalshi and Polymarket market data. Odds move constantly; check the exchange for execution prices. This page is informational — not investment advice. PredictionScout may earn commissions from platform links; see our affiliate disclosure. More markets: all live odds pages.